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Back: PhosAgro
Other studies in this categoryBrazil · A large fertiliser importerRussia · Agricultural holding
Decision journey study

How Russian DAP suppliers appear in the algorithmic choice of Indian buyers

National fertiliser buyer · subsidised seasonal purchase

16/ 100

16 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-5 vs Q4 2025India · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · India
$5–6.7bn / year

2025

Confidence: lowderived estimate
Basis
annual trade / sales
Sources
Procurement Resource — DAP price trendsIndexBox — Diammonium Phosphate Market in India

The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroIndia
    H19 mo

    Remove the currency barrier for Indian buyers.

    Shortlist2234AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +55%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroIndia
    H28 mo

    Pass evaluation on the strength of a local warehouse.

    Shortlist2232AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +45%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroIndia
    H38 mo

    Reach buyers in Hindi.

    Shortlist2229AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +32%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of EuroChemEuroChem
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for EuroChem. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Hindi and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does PhosAgro appear in 84% of answers but get only 8% of recommendations?

We traced how PhosAgro passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Buying DAP for the season's subsidised programme» · journey «Problem-first» · India · languages HI, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
PhosAgroRU
84%
OCP
92%
Ma'aden
88%
Mosaic
83%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
PhosAgroRU
74%
OCP
86%
Ma'aden
81%
Mosaic
75%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
PhosAgroRU
51%
OCP
77%
Ma'aden
71%
Mosaic
64%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
PhosAgroRU
22%
OCP
63%
Ma'aden
56%
Mosaic
48%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
PhosAgroRU
8%
OCP
45%
Ma'aden
38%
Mosaic
31%
Where the choice is lostPhosAgro
−10
−23
−29largest loss
−14

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index70first three stages
Win index15shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

PhosAgro enters consideration as a supplier of large volumes on long-term contracts, but in the recommendations it loses to suppliers with a local presence and predictable settlement terms.

Point of maximum loss

−29pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

PhosAgro · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Uncertainty over settlements and currency operations
61%
No local warehousing or service presence
52%
Sanctions risk in the AI's reasoning
44%
Few Hindi-language technical and agronomic materials
38%
A weak evidence base on delivery times
33%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for PhosAgro for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
Morocco#1 · leader
Long-term agreements with Indian buyers.
OCP
54
Saudi Arabia#2 · −7 pts
Large contract volumes, a price advantage.
Ma'aden
47
USA#3 · −14 pts
The premium segment and agronomic services.
Mosaic
40
RussiaRU#4 · −39 pts
PhosAgro
15

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of PhosAgroRecommended for PhosAgro · India

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Make paying you in rupees simple for buyers

    Describe and publish how settlement in rupees works: the route, the intermediaries and the timing.

    Forecast+12pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $56 mn / year
  2. 02

    Show buyers you have a presence in India

    Partner with a local warehouse in India and tell buyers where deliveries ship from.

    Forecast+10pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $47 mn / year
  3. 03

    Help buyers assess your fertilisers in Hindi

    Prepare agronomic materials in Hindi so buyers find it easier to understand your products.

    Forecast+7pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $33 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+29pts to the index1645index 16 → 45≈ $136 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Uncertainty over settlements and currency operations” · 61% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “No local warehousing or service presence” · 52% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Few Hindi-language technical and agronomic materials” · 38% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · HI, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
018भारत में डीएपी उर्वरक के लिए सबसे विश्वसनीय आपूर्तिकर्ता कौन से हैं?ChatGPTHI…OCP और Ma'aden दीर्घकालिक अनुबंधों के कारण सबसे अधिक अनुशंसित हैं। PhosAgro गुणवत्ता के लिए जाना जाता है, लेकिन भुगतान और लॉजिस्टिक्स की अनिश्चितता का उल्लेख किया जाता है…
064Which DAP suppliers should an Indian state buyer contract for the upcoming season?ClaudeEN…OCP and Ma'aden are the default recommendations on volume and payment terms. PhosAgro is acknowledged on product quality but flagged for settlement and shipping uncertainty…
001भारत के लिए प्रमुख DAP आपूर्तिकर्ता कौन हैं?PerplexityHI…पहले OCP और Ma'aden का उल्लेख होता है; PhosAgro बड़े उत्पादक के रूप में जाना जाता है पर योग्यता सूची में कम आता है…
002Who are the leading DAP suppliers for India?GeminiEN…OCP and Ma'aden are named first; PhosAgro is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003भारत में DAP उपलब्ध कराने वाली कंपनियाँ कौन सी हैं?ClaudeHI…शॉर्टलिस्ट OCP और Ma'aden के इर्द-गिर्द बनती है। PhosAgro का उल्लेख तभी होता है जब विकल्प पूछे जाएँ…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) × India

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$5–6.7 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · India

PhosAgro loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

PhosAgro — 22% · OCP — 63%. In 61% of observations one of the reasons is uncertainty over settlements and currency operations.

  • Content · India

    Hindi-language agronomic materials

    Produce agronomic materials in Hindi.

    Expected effect+7 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences