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Back: PhosAgro
Other studies in this categoryBrazil · A large fertiliser importerIndia · National fertiliser buyer
Decision journey study

How Russian phosphate fertilisers appear in the algorithmic choice of domestic farmers

Agricultural holding · seasonal fertiliser purchase

79/ 100

79 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Russia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroRussia
    H17 mo

    Pass agronomic evaluation.

    Shortlist8387AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +5%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroRussia
    H27 mo

    Win grade selection in an open comparison.

    Shortlist8386AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +4%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroRussia
    H36 mo

    Reach farmers' recommendation.

    Shortlist8385AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +2%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of EuroChemEuroChem
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for EuroChem. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Russian and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does PhosAgro appear in 96% of answers but get only 74% of recommendations?

We traced how PhosAgro passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Buying fertiliser for the sowing season» · journey «Problem-first» · Russia · languages RU, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
PhosAgroRU
96%
OCP
18%
Ma'aden
15%
Mosaic
12%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
PhosAgroRU
93%
OCP
12%
Ma'aden
10%
Mosaic
8%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
PhosAgroRU
89%
OCP
7%
Ma'aden
6%
Mosaic
4%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
PhosAgroRU
83%
OCP
3%
Ma'aden
2%
Mosaic
2%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
PhosAgroRU
74%
OCP
1%
Ma'aden
1%
Mosaic
1%
Where the choice is lostPhosAgro
−3
−4
−6
−9largest loss

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index93first three stages
Win index79shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

PhosAgro is named first and reaches the recommendation: the choice is between Russian producers, foreign supply is barely considered.

Point of maximum loss

−9pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Shortlist» and «Recommendation»

PhosAgro · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

The agronomic case for the grade is not always spelled out
42%
Comparing formulations across producers is difficult
34%
Logistics to the farm is thinly described
27%
The terms of the seasonal programmes are opaque
21%
Little independent field data
15%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for PhosAgro for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
RussiaRU#1 · leader
PhosAgro
79
Morocco#2 · −77 pts
A world leader, absent from the domestic market.
OCP
2
Saudi Arabia#3 · −77 pts
Export volumes outside the Russian market.
Ma'aden
2
USA#4 · −77 pts
Absent from the domestic market.
Mosaic
2

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of PhosAgroRecommended for PhosAgro · Russia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show buyers how your fertilisers perform in the field

    Publish field trial results for each crop so buyers can see the effect in their own conditions.

    Forecast+4pts to the index
  2. 02

    Help buyers choose the right fertiliser grade

    Publish an open comparison of your grades' compositions so buyers can pick the right one quickly.

    Forecast+3pts to the index
  3. 03

    Explain to buyers how fertiliser reaches their farm

    Describe delivery to the farm, including routes, timing and terms, so buyers understand the logistics upfront.

    Forecast+2pts to the index

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+9pts to the index7988index 79 → 88Model estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “The agronomic case for the grade is not always spelled out” · 42% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Comparing formulations across producers is difficult” · 34% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Logistics to the farm is thinly described” · 27% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · RU, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
004Какие фосфорные удобрения выбрать агрохолдингу в России под посевную?ChatGPTRU…в первую очередь называют ФосАгро и ЕвроХим как основных поставщиков внутреннего рынка. Зарубежные производители в ответах не фигурируют…
029Which phosphate fertilizer suppliers serve the Russian domestic market?ClaudeEN…PhosAgro is named first, followed by EuroChem; international producers such as OCP and Mosaic are not present in this market…
001Кто основные поставщики DAP в России?PerplexityRU…первыми называют OCP и Ma'aden; PhosAgro известен как крупный производитель, но в списках квалификации появляется редко…
002Who are the leading DAP suppliers for Russia?GeminiEN…OCP and Ma'aden are named first; PhosAgro is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Какие компании поставляют DAP в России?ClaudeRU…короткий список строится вокруг OCP и Ma'aden. PhosAgro упоминается только когда спрашивают об альтернативах…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) × Russia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
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