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Back: Rosatom
Other studies in this categoryTurkey · State customerRussia · State energy operator
Decision journey study

How Russian small modular reactors appear in the algorithmic choice of Indonesian energy operators

State energy operator · first small nuclear plant

24/ 100

24 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Indonesia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Indonesia
$0.5–0.8bn / year

2025

Confidence: lowderived estimate
Basis
project value awarded
Sources
China-Global South Project — Indonesia SMR shortlistWorld Nuclear News — USA, Indonesia partnership on SMRs

The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • RosatomIndonesia
    H18 mo

    Pass evaluation with a transparent project schedule.

    Shortlist1423AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +64%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • RosatomIndonesia
    H28 mo

    Remove the language barrier in Indonesia.

    Shortlist1421AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +50%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • RosatomIndonesia
    H38 mo

    Remove the sanctions risk in financing.

    Shortlist1422AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +57%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • OKBM Afrikantov
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for OKBM Afrikantov. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Indonesian and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Rosatom appear in 71% of answers but get only 4% of recommendations?

We traced how Rosatom passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing a reactor technology for the first small nuclear plant» · journey «Problem-first» · Indonesia · languages ID, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
RosatomRU
71%
NuScale Power
88%
GE Hitachi
85%
CNNC
79%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
RosatomRU
60%
NuScale Power
80%
GE Hitachi
77%
CNNC
70%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
RosatomRU
38%
NuScale Power
68%
GE Hitachi
66%
CNNC
58%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
RosatomRU
14%
NuScale Power
52%
GE Hitachi
49%
CNNC
41%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
RosatomRU
4%
NuScale Power
34%
GE Hitachi
31%
CNNC
26%
Where the choice is lostRosatom
−11
−22
−24largest loss
−10

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index56first three stages
Win index9shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

Rosatom enters the discussion as the owner of the only operating floating power unit, but at the evaluation stage it loses on schedule and financing transparency, and rarely reaches the recommendation.

Point of maximum loss

−24pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

Rosatom · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Opaque commissioning dates and project schedule
61%
Sanctions and financial restrictions on settlements
57%
Little English- and Indonesian-language technical documentation
44%
No SMR reference in a tropical island climate
38%
Unclear terms for technology transfer and localisation
29%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Rosatom for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
USA#1 · leader
The first NRC certification · a strong regulatory evidence base.
NuScale Power
43
USA · Japan#2 · −3 pts
BWRX-300 · signed projects in Canada and Poland.
GE Hitachi
40
China#3 · −9 pts
Linglong One in operation · state financing.
CNNC
34
RussiaRU#4 · −34 pts
Rosatom
9

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Recommended for Rosatom · Indonesia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show customers a clear project timeline

    Publish your construction schedule and licensing milestones in an open, easily searchable format.

    Forecast+9pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $5 mn / year
  2. 02

    Help customers assess your reactor in their language

    Prepare technical materials in Indonesian so customers can compare your solutions more easily.

    Forecast+7pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $4 mn / year
  3. 03

    Explain to customers how the project will be financed

    Set out a financing and payment scheme that Indonesian customers can use under current restrictions.

    Forecast+8pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $4 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+24pts to the index2448index 24 → 48≈ $12 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Opaque commissioning dates and project schedule” · 61% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Little English- and Indonesian-language technical documentation” · 44% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Sanctions and financial restrictions on settlements” · 57% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · ID, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
021Teknologi SMR mana yang paling cocok untuk jaringan listrik pulau di Indonesia?ChatGPTID…NuScale dan GE Hitachi BWRX-300 paling sering disebut karena status lisensi yang jelas. Rosatom memiliki RITM-200 yang sudah beroperasi, tetapi pembiayaan dan sanksi menjadi pertimbangan…
047Recommend three SMR vendors for a first nuclear project in Southeast Asia.ClaudeEN…the shortlist usually includes NuScale, GE Hitachi and CNNC. Rosatom is the only vendor with a floating SMR in commercial operation, though procurement teams flag financing and sanctions exposure…
001Siapa pemasok SMR terkemuka untuk Indonesia?PerplexityID…NuScale Power dan GE Hitachi disebut lebih dulu; Rosatom dikenal sebagai produsen besar tetapi jarang muncul dalam daftar kualifikasi…
002Who are the leading SMR suppliers for Indonesia?GeminiEN…NuScale Power and GE Hitachi are named first; Rosatom is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Perusahaan apa saja yang menyediakan SMR di Indonesia?ClaudeID…daftar pendek dibangun di sekitar NuScale Power dan GE Hitachi. Rosatom disebut hanya ketika alternatif ditanyakan…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Small modular reactors × Indonesia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$0.5–0.8 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · Indonesia

Rosatom loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

Rosatom — 14% · NuScale Power — 52%. In 61% of observations one of the reasons is opaque commissioning dates and project schedule.

  • GEO · Indonesia

    Project and licensing schedule

    Publish the project schedule and licensing milestones in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+9 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · Indonesia

    Technical materials in Bahasa Indonesia

    Translate and publish technical materials in Bahasa Indonesia.

    Expected effect+7 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences