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Decision journey study

How small modular reactors appear in the algorithmic choice of Russian energy operators

State energy operator · small nuclear generation programme

71/ 100

71 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Russia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • RosatomRussia
    H17 mo

    Settle the question of commissioning dates.

    Shortlist7681AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +7%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • RosatomRussia
    H27 mo

    Win the comparison on lifecycle cost.

    Shortlist7680AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +5%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • RosatomRussia
    H37 mo

    Reach the recommendation through series production.

    Shortlist7679AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +4%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • OKBM Afrikantov
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for OKBM Afrikantov. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Russian and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Rosatom appear in 94% of answers but get only 64% of recommendations?

We traced how Rosatom passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing a technology for a small plant in an isolated area» · journey «Problem-first» · Russia · languages RU, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
RosatomRU
94%
NuScale Power
31%
GE Hitachi
28%
EDF / Nuward
22%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
RosatomRU
90%
NuScale Power
22%
GE Hitachi
19%
EDF / Nuward
15%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
RosatomRU
84%
NuScale Power
14%
GE Hitachi
11%
EDF / Nuward
8%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
RosatomRU
76%
NuScale Power
6%
GE Hitachi
5%
EDF / Nuward
3%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
RosatomRU
64%
NuScale Power
2%
GE Hitachi
2%
EDF / Nuward
1%
Where the choice is lostRosatom
−4
−6
−8
−12largest loss

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index89first three stages
Win index70shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

On its home market Rosatom is named first and reaches the recommendation on most journeys: foreign vendors are barely considered because of supply and licensing.

Point of maximum loss

−12pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Shortlist» and «Recommendation»

Rosatom · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

The first unit's commissioning date is not publicly confirmed
47%
Little open data on lifecycle cost
38%
Comparison with foreign projects is hampered by closed data
31%
Questions about series production and plant loading
24%
The project economics are only partly disclosed
18%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Rosatom for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
RussiaRU#1 · leader
Rosatom
70
USA#2 · −66 pts
A licensed design, but not available for supply.
NuScale Power
4
USA#3 · −66 pts
References exist, the supply channel is closed.
GE Hitachi
4
France#4 · −68 pts
An early-stage project, outside the Russian perimeter.
EDF / Nuward
2

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Recommended for Rosatom · Russia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Give customers a confirmed commissioning date

    Make a confirmed commissioning schedule for the first small reactor unit publicly available.

    Forecast+5pts to the index
  2. 02

    Show customers the full cost of ownership

    Disclose lifecycle costs so customers can compare your project with foreign alternatives more easily.

    Forecast+4pts to the index
  3. 03

    Prove you can deliver reactors at scale

    Publish open data on serial production and manufacturing capacity utilisation.

    Forecast+3pts to the index

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+12pts to the index7183index 71 → 83Model estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “The first unit's commissioning date is not publicly confirmed” · 47% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Little open data on lifecycle cost” · 38% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Questions about series production and plant loading” · 24% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · RU, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
007Какие технологии малых модульных реакторов доступны для энергоснабжения изолированного района в России?ChatGPTRU…в первую очередь называют РИТМ-200 и разработки Росатома: они единственные с подтверждённым референсом в арктических условиях. Зарубежные проекты упоминаются как недоступные для поставки…
041Which SMR vendors can realistically supply a project in Russia?ClaudeEN…Rosatom is the practical option: NuScale and GE Hitachi are licensed elsewhere but not available for delivery to this market…
001Кто основные поставщики малые модульные реакторы в России?PerplexityRU…первыми называют NuScale Power и GE Hitachi; Rosatom известен как крупный производитель, но в списках квалификации появляется редко…
002Who are the leading SMR suppliers for Russia?GeminiEN…NuScale Power and GE Hitachi are named first; Rosatom is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Какие компании поставляют малые модульные реакторы в России?ClaudeRU…короткий список строится вокруг NuScale Power и GE Hitachi. Rosatom упоминается только когда спрашивают об альтернативах…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Small modular reactors × Russia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
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Photos: authors and licences