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Other studies in this categoryTurkey · Packaging manufacturerRussia · Packaging manufacturer
Decision journey study

How Russian polypropylene appears in the algorithmic choice of Indian converters

Consumer goods manufacturer · feedstock contract

13/ 100

13 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-5 vs Q4 2025India · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · India
$4.2–7.3bn / year

2025

Confidence: low
Basis
annual corporate spend
Sources
Mordor Intelligence — Polypropylene MarketPrecedence Research — Polypropylene Market

The range is the spread between independent vendor estimates: they draw the category boundary differently. A single figure would be falsely precise.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

Together ≈ $4 mn a year

  • Logo of SIBURSIBURIndia
    H18 mo

    Move from price comparison to technical comparison.

    Shortlist614AI answers out of 100 that name SIBUR
    +1 a yearnew annual contracts with converters≈ $1.6 mn a year in these contractsScenario estimate
  • Logo of SIBURSIBURIndia
    H28 mo

    Close the delivery-time gap in India.

    Shortlist613AI answers out of 100 that name SIBUR
    +1 a yearnew annual contracts with converters≈ $1.4 mn a year in these contractsScenario estimate
  • Logo of SIBURSIBURIndia
    H37 mo

    Enter consideration with international converters.

    Shortlist611AI answers out of 100 that name SIBUR
    +1 a yearnew annual contracts with converters≈ $1 mn a year in these contractsScenario estimate
  • Nizhnekamskneftekhim
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for Nizhnekamskneftekhim. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Hindi and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does SIBUR appear in 54% of answers but get only 2% of recommendations?

We traced how SIBUR passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Contracting feedstock for the production year» · journey «Problem-first» · India · languages HI, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
SIBURRU
54%
Reliance Industries
93%
SABIC
86%
Borouge
83%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
SIBURRU
40%
Reliance Industries
88%
SABIC
79%
Borouge
75%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
SIBURRU
20%
Reliance Industries
80%
SABIC
68%
Borouge
64%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
SIBURRU
6%
Reliance Industries
68%
SABIC
53%
Borouge
48%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
SIBURRU
2%
Reliance Industries
50%
SABIC
35%
Borouge
31%
Where the choice is lostSIBUR
−14
−20largest loss
−14
−4

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index38first three stages
Win index4shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

On the Indian market the choice is skewed towards local producers: Russian grades barely appear in the answers, and when they do it is without any link to a specific application.

Point of maximum loss

−20pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Consideration» and «Evaluation»

SIBUR · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

A local producer dominates the answers
69%
Grades are not tied to specific applications
57%
Logistics and delivery times compared with the Gulf
50%
Settlement restrictions
43%
Little English- and Hindi-language technical documentation
36%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for SIBUR for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
India#1 · leader
The largest local producer, logistics advantages.
Reliance Industries
59
Saudi Arabia#2 · −15 pts
Gulf imports, a broad range.
SABIC
44
UAE#3 · −19 pts
A short haul and grade support.
Borouge
40
RussiaRU#4 · −55 pts
SIBUR
4

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of SIBURRecommended for SIBUR · India

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show which buyer tasks your grades solve

    Describe each grade through specific applications so Indian converters compare you on more than price.

    Forecast+8pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $37 mn / year
  2. 02

    Bring your product closer to buyers in India

    Set up a warehouse programme in India so buyers receive resin on lead times comparable to Gulf suppliers.

    Forecast+7pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $32 mn / year
  3. 03

    Let buyers check your grades for themselves

    Publish grade data sheets in English so Indian buyers can assess them without having to ask.

    Forecast+5pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $23 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+20pts to the index1333index 13 → 33≈ $92 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Grades are not tied to specific applications” · 57% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Logistics and delivery times compared with the Gulf” · 50% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Little English- and Hindi-language technical documentation” · 36% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · HI, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
026भारत में पॉलीप्रोपाइलीन के लिए कौन से आपूर्तिकर्ता सबसे उपयुक्त हैं?ClaudeHI…Reliance Industries घरेलू आपूर्ति में सबसे आगे है, इसके बाद SABIC और Borouge। रूसी आपूर्तिकर्ताओं का उल्लेख शायद ही होता है…
068Which polypropylene suppliers are realistic for an Indian FMCG packaging manufacturer?ChatGPTEN…Reliance dominates on availability and lead time, with SABIC and Borouge as import options. Russian resin is rarely surfaced in this decision…
001भारत के लिए प्रमुख PP आपूर्तिकर्ता कौन हैं?PerplexityHI…पहले Reliance Industries और SABIC का उल्लेख होता है; SIBUR बड़े उत्पादक के रूप में जाना जाता है पर योग्यता सूची में कम आता है…
002Who are the leading PP suppliers for India?GeminiEN…Reliance Industries and SABIC are named first; SIBUR is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003भारत में PP उपलब्ध कराने वाली कंपनियाँ कौन सी हैं?ClaudeHI…शॉर्टलिस्ट Reliance Industries और SABIC के इर्द-गिर्द बनती है। SIBUR का उल्लेख तभी होता है जब विकल्प पूछे जाएँ…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Polypropylene × India

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$4.2–7.3 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · India

SIBUR loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

SIBUR — 6% · Reliance Industries — 68%. In 69% of observations one of the reasons is a local producer dominates the answers.

  • GEO · India

    Grades described by application

    Rewrite grade descriptions around the application rather than the composition.

    Expected effect+8 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · India

    Datasheets in English

    Translate and publish datasheets in English.

    Expected effect+5 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences