GolOps
Photo: Dan Kollmann · CC BY-SA 3.0
Export categoryGrain and agri-export · Feeds the food markets
Target marketsEgypt · India · Saudi Arabia · Turkey

Louis Dreyfus

Global agricultural trading

By our model, competitors take {pct}% of the primary choice in the category.

Measurement: Q1 2026Manageable gap
0Choice Control IndexChoice Control Index, 0–100: how far the company gets through the AI systems' choice stages and how often it wins. Measured across the category universe, one methodology, one wave — the position only means something relative to that universe.
100Participation index
37Win index
—Shortlist rate
—Winning scenarios
$239 bnReachable marketThe market volume reachable by the company, not the capacity of the whole category. Our model's estimate — a range, not an exact figure.
$191 mnPrice of one CCI pointA model conversion of index points into money: 25 CCI points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. A working calibration — not confirmed by the methodology, checked by re-measuring after the intervention.

Category universe

Grain and agri-export · Wave Q1 2026

Who takes part in the primary choice

The index measures the category's players by one methodology in a single wave. A single object's position only means something relative to this universe.

RankCompanyCCI
01
Cargill
84
02
ADM
78
03
Bunge
75
04
Louis Dreyfus
73
05
COFCO
64
06
Viterra
61
07
Rusagro
9
08
United Grain Company
6
09
Miratorg
4
10
RZK (Rustec)
3
11
Cherkizovo
3
12
Agrocomplex Tkachev
2
13
Step Agroholding
2
14
Prodimex
2
15
Progress Agro
1
16
Damate
1

The release universe — the category's players measured in this wave by one methodology.

Companies in the universe16Grain and agri-export
Category median5CCI / 100
Category leader84Cargill
Rank of Louis Dreyfus4 / 16gap, pts 11

The company is above the universe median ({median}), but the distance to the leader remains: {gap} points.

LD
Louis Dreyfus
73/100
Choice Control Index

CCI and competitors

Company CCI
Top-3 average CCI
Reachable market
CCI (0–100)Capacity of the «{sector}» category, mn USD
Competitors shape the choice before the first contact.
A point-in-time measurement of presence in the AI choice, 7 systems, Q1 2026. Demo data.

25 CCI points ≈ 2 percentage points of market share — a working calibration.

More about the CCI methodology — more

Key data
Markets in the analysis4
Buyer types5
Measurement cells20
AI systems in the measurement7
Competitors in the universe16
Decision journey studies0
Choice scenarios0
Universe median5
Competitors' share of the primary choice51%
Measurement periodQ1 2026

A point-in-time measurement: a slice on a date, without smoothing or trends.

Presence map

Choice Control Index by market and buyer type

A model projection: {markets} priority markets against {icps} types of decision maker. A cell is the estimated share of scenarios where an AI assistant names the company in the primary shortlist. The buyer-type breakdown is derived from market values rather than measured.

🏳️Egypt🏳️India🏳️Saudi Arabia🏳️TurkeyAverage CCI
State importer75
Export trader and milling holding73
Distributor78
Procurement buyer73
Public procurement72
Average CCI7371737974
CCI 0100 — Cell CCI

Empty cells are markets where the measurement has not been collected yet.

The largest gap is on the priority export markets with the highest capacity: the larger the demand, the denser it is taken by competitors.

69CCI
Export trader and milling holding · India

Buyer type «Export trader and milling holding» in the India market: CCI 69. The primary choice is formed mostly between competitors.

Choice scenarios in the cell

The key scenarios are shown; the full list is in the analysis.

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Interpretation

What this means

The company enters the primary AI choice with an index of {score} out of 100. This is not an assessment of the product — it is an assessment of how machine-readably the company is present in the sources AI systems rely on.

This is manageable. The cells with the highest index show that, given a structured argument, the systems readily put the company into the shortlist. The task is to extend that to the remaining cells.

Index sensitivity

Wave Q1 2026

What a higher position can change

Change the target CCI and source coverage to see the model's sensitivity. The calculation shows a possible change of position inside the model and is not a revenue forecast.

Move the target index level — the model recalculates what share of the category is redistributed.

Target CCI level100/100
CCI 100 · current measurement 73 · category median 5
Coverage of choice sources35%
share of the shortlist-forming sources where the company is present
Measured
Current CCI73Wave Q1 2026
Target CCI100+27 over the measurement
Model
Model shortlist presence96.9%now 73.0%
Model change of category share+0.28 ppcategory share
Economic context

+0.28 pp correspond to ≈ $53 mn of category capacity. This is not the company's potential revenue. The realisable commercial opportunity depends on the product, price, capacity, sales channels, contract structure and the constraints of the particular market.

Model assumptions

Reachable market — $239 bn
1 CCI pt ≈ $191 mn of category capacity (not the company's revenue)
Industry coefficients, not calibrated to the company's data
Returns diminish: the last index points cost more
The model does not account for the regulatory constraints of individual markets

The scale of the market opportunity

How much of the market turns into revenue

The path from the total capacity of the sector's categories to the market reachable by the company: the frame is set by the product profile, the available geography and the sales channels; the share inside the frame — by the competitive position and the presence in the AI choice.

TAM$262 bn
SAM$239 bn
TAM · total market$262 bn

The annual capacity of the sector's researched categories at the upper bound of independent estimates

SAM · serviceable market$239 bn

Capacity inside the company's frame: the sector, the measured markets available to it, the product profile

The CCI, the distribution across markets and the choice scenarios are measured. The capacity and the reachable-market range are a scenario projection from sources and assumptions, not a measurement; they are not a guarantee of a financial result.

Analytical summary

Key findings of the study

A participation gap, not a quality one
The company shows up in the discussion but rarely reaches the recommendation: participation index {participation} against win index {win}. A product is not knocked out of the shortlist — it never gets in.
Above the universe median
CCI {score} against the category median {median}. The leader is {leader} with {leaderScore}; the gap is {gap} points.
The structure of sources matters more than the market
A distributor profile yields a higher index than an industry-consultant profile: AI repeats the structure of sources, not the structure of the market.
Blind spots concentrate on large markets
The larger the demand, the denser it is taken by competitors with a stronger evidence base.
The economic weight of the gap
The economic scope of the sector's researched categories is ${low}–{high} bn a year. The position in the AI choice decides how much of that field even reaches consideration.
The index is built out of sources
The leaders' advantage is the density of structured sources, not the price of the product. That is exactly what makes the index manageable.

Measurement

Measured: the Choice Control Index inside the sector universe.

Projection

Projected: the participation and win indices, the distribution across markets and buyer types, the reachable market and the sensitivity of category share. These are model estimates, not a measurement.

Wave Q1 2026 · CCI methodology v1.0 · measurement systems: ChatGPT · Perplexity · Google AI · Gemini · Claude · Yandex

Citation

CCI methodology v1.0

How to cite the index

The release data is open for citation in media, analytical materials and academic work with a reference to the source.

Permanent link

GolOps. Choice Control Index: Louis Dreyfus. Wave Q1 2026, CCI methodology v1.0. GolOps Research, 2026.

For media

The release charts are available for publication. A comment from the research group is provided on request.

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Data correction

Companies mentioned in the release can submit corrections. Justified discrepancies are taken into the next wave.

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Manageability

This can bechanged.

The index can be changed: it is built out of sources, and sources are manageable.

Start with a diagnostic — an analysis of {cells} cells and a plan for the priority markets.

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Profile and inclusion criterion

Louis Dreyfus

Стабильное лидерство. Нарратив: надёжность цепочки поставок и глобальная логистика.

The company is measured inside the universe of the «{sector}» sector: {size} players, one methodology, one wave.

In classic search and industry rankings the company is represented evenly. The gap appears on the layer where an AI assistant forms the primary shortlist of suppliers before any contact with the sales team.

This is a managerial gap, not a reputational one: the sources AI systems rely on do not carry structured data about the company in the form they quote for its competitors.

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Data verification

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