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Back: Novatek
Export categoryEnergy and LNG · The resilience of global flows
Target marketsIndia

Novatek

India · Regasification terminal operator · cryogenic equipment purchase

By our model, competitors take 98% of the primary choice in the category.

Measurement: Q1 2026Manageable gap
0Choice Control IndexChoice Control Index, 0–100: how far the company gets through the AI systems' choice stages and how often it wins. Measured across the category universe, one methodology, one wave — the position only means something relative to that universe.
45Participation index
5Win index
8%Shortlist rate
2%Winning scenarios
$3.1 bnReachable marketThe market volume reachable by the company, not the capacity of the whole category. Our model's estimate — a range, not an exact figure.
$2 mnPrice of one CCI pointA model conversion of index points into money: 25 CCI points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. A working calibration — not confirmed by the methodology, checked by re-measuring after the intervention.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of NovatekNovatekIndia
    H18 mo

    Enter the technology choice as an equipment supplier.

    Shortlist818AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    ×2.3to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekIndia
    H28 mo

    Remove the service objection in India.

    Shortlist815AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +88%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekIndia
    H37 mo

    Pass evaluation with transparent project timelines.

    Shortlist813AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +63%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
Full market study

Category universe

Energy and LNG · Wave Q1 2026

Who takes part in the primary choice

The index measures the category's players by one methodology in a single wave. A single object's position only means something relative to this universe.

RankCompanyCCI
01
Linde Engineering
43
02
Chart Industries
29
03
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
27
04
NovatekRU
2

The release universe — the category's players measured in this wave by one methodology.

Companies in the universe4Energy and LNG
Category median28CCI / 100
Category leader43Linde Engineering
Rank of Novatek4 / 4gap, pts 41

The company sits below the universe median (28). The gap is structural: the mechanics of getting into the primary choice are not worked out across the whole group of Russian objects in the category.

NO
Novatek
2/100
Choice Control Index

CCI and competitors

Company CCI
Top-3 average CCI
Reachable market
CCI (0–100)Capacity of the «Natural gas liquefaction technology» category, bn USD
Competitors shape the choice before the first contact.
A point-in-time measurement of presence in the AI choice, 7 systems, Q1 2026. Demo data.

25 CCI points ≈ 2 percentage points of market share — a working calibration.

More about the CCI methodology — more

Key data
MarketIndia
BuyerRegasification terminal operator
AI systems in the measurement7
Competitors in the universe4
Choice scenarios2
Reaches the AI recommendation2%
Universe median28
Competitors' share of the primary choice98%
Measurement periodQ1 2026

A point-in-time measurement: a slice on a date, without smoothing or trends.

Presence map

Choice Control Index Regasification terminal operator

A model projection by buyer type on the India market: a cell estimates the share of scenarios in which the AI assistant puts the company on the primary shortlist. The study's buyer is measured; other types are derived from it.

🏳️IndiaAverage CCI
Operator of a new LNG project6
Regasification terminal operator4
Distributor10
Procurement buyer2
Public procurement0
Average CCI44
CCI 0100 — Cell CCI

Empty cells are markets where the measurement has not been collected yet.

The largest gap is on the priority export markets with the highest capacity: the larger the demand, the denser it is taken by competitors.

6CCI
Operator of a new LNG project · India

Buyer type «Operator of a new LNG project» in the India market: CCI 6. The primary choice is formed mostly between competitors.

Choice scenarios in the cell

Buying cryogenic equipment for a terminal expansion
7 AI systems · HI, EN
Choosing a technology partner for a small-scale LNG project
7 AI systems · HI, EN

The key scenarios are shown; the full list is in the analysis.

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Interpretation

What this means

The company enters the primary AI choice with an index of 2 out of 100. This is not an assessment of the product — it is an assessment of how machine-readably the company is present in the sources AI systems rely on.

This is manageable. The cells with the highest index show that, given a structured argument, the systems readily put the company into the shortlist. The task is to extend that to the remaining cells.

Index sensitivity

Wave Q1 2026

What a higher position can change

Change the target CCI and source coverage to see the model's sensitivity. The calculation shows a possible change of position inside the model and is not a revenue forecast.

Move the target index level — the model recalculates what share of the category is redistributed.

Target CCI level33/100
CCI 33 · current measurement 2 · category median 28
Coverage of choice sources35%
share of the shortlist-forming sources where the company is present
Measured
Current CCI2Wave Q1 2026
Target CCI33+31 over the measurement
Model
Model shortlist presence99.7%now 8.0%
Model change of category share+1.07 ppcategory share
Economic context

+1.07 pp correspond to ≈ $2.1 mn of category capacity. This is not the company's potential revenue. The realisable commercial opportunity depends on the product, price, capacity, sales channels, contract structure and the constraints of the particular market.

Model assumptions

Reachable market — $3.1 bn
1 CCI pt ≈ $2 mn of category capacity (not the company's revenue)
Industry coefficients, not calibrated to the company's data
Returns diminish: the last index points cost more
The model does not account for the regulatory constraints of individual markets

Analytical summary

Key findings of the study

A participation gap, not a quality one
The company shows up in the discussion but rarely reaches the recommendation: participation index 45 against win index 5. A product is not knocked out of the shortlist — it never gets in.
Below the universe median
CCI 2 against the category median 28. The leader is Linde Engineering with 43; the gap is 41 points.
Where the choice is lost
The main loss factor is “In the answers the equipment is not separated from feedstock contracts”, named in 62% of answers.
The economic weight of the gap
This study's market is worth $2.72–3.53 bn a year. The position in AI choice decides how much of it reaches consideration.
The index is built out of sources
The leaders' advantage is the density of structured sources, not the price of the product. That is exactly what makes the index manageable.

Measurement

Measured: the Choice Control Index, the participation and win indices, the composition of shortlists in the choice scenarios.

Projection

Projected: the distribution across buyer types, the reachable market and the sensitivity of category share to the index. These are model estimates, not a measurement.

Wave Q1 2026 · CCI methodology v1.0 · measurement systems: ChatGPT · Perplexity · Google AI · Gemini · Claude · Yandex

Citation

CCI methodology v1.0

How to cite the index

The release data is open for citation in media, analytical materials and academic work with a reference to the source.

Permanent link

GolOps. Choice Control Index: Novatek. Wave Q1 2026, CCI methodology v1.0. GolOps Research, 2026.

For media

The release charts are available for publication. A comment from the research group is provided on request.

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Data correction

Companies mentioned in the release can submit corrections. Justified discrepancies are taken into the next wave.

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Manageability

This can bechanged.

The index can be changed: it is built out of sources, and sources are manageable.

Start with a diagnostic — an analysis of 5 cells and a plan for the priority markets.

Request a diagnostic

Profile and inclusion criterion

Novatek

Long-term LNG supply contracts pull Russian players into the discussion, but when it comes to technology and equipment the AI systems consistently recommend Western and Japanese vendors.

Choice question: Choosing a cryogenic equipment supplier for a regasification terminal in India

Universe of the “Natural gas liquefaction technology × India” study: 4 objects in the choice funnel, one methodology, one wave.

This is a managerial gap, not a reputational one: the sources AI systems rely on do not carry structured data about the company in the form they quote for its competitors.

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Data verification

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