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Back: Novatek
Export categoryEnergy and LNG · The resilience of global flows
Target marketsRussia

Novatek

Russia · LNG project operator · localising the liquefaction technology

By our model, the company leads the primary choice in this segment; all other players take 9%.

Measurement: Q1 2026Manageable gap
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0Choice Control IndexChoice Control Index, 0–100: how far the company gets through the AI systems' choice stages and how often it wins. Measured across the category universe, one methodology, one wave — the position only means something relative to that universe.
80Participation index
49Win index
56%Shortlist rate
42%Winning scenarios
—Reachable marketThe market volume reachable by the company, not the capacity of the whole category. Our model's estimate — a range, not an exact figure.
—Price of one CCI pointA model conversion of index points into money: 25 CCI points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. A working calibration — not confirmed by the methodology, checked by re-measuring after the intervention.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of NovatekNovatekRussia
    H17 mo

    Remove doubts about technology maturity.

    Shortlist5662AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +11%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekRussia
    H27 mo

    Enter direct comparison with foreign processes.

    Shortlist5661AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +9%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekRussia
    H37 mo

    Remove the delivery-time risk.

    Shortlist5660AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +7%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
Full market study

Category universe

Energy and LNG · Wave Q1 2026

Who takes part in the primary choice

The index measures the category's players by one methodology in a single wave. A single object's position only means something relative to this universe.

RankCompanyCCI
01
NovatekRU
39
02
Linde
2
03
Air Liquide
1
04
Chart Industries
1

The release universe — the category's players measured in this wave by one methodology.

Companies in the universe4Energy and LNG
Category median1.5CCI / 100
Category leader39Novatek
Rank of Novatek1 / 4gap, pts 0

The company leads the segment universe; the gap to second place is 37 points.

NO
Novatek
39/100
Choice Control Index
Strengthen participationAnalyse the scenarios

CCI and competitors

Company CCI
Top-3 average CCI
Reachable market
CCI (0–100)Capacity of the «Natural gas liquefaction technology» category, mn USD
Competitors shape the choice before the first contact.
A point-in-time measurement of presence in the AI choice, 7 systems, Q1 2026. Demo data.

25 CCI points ≈ 2 percentage points of market share — a working calibration.

More about the CCI methodology — more

Key data
MarketRussia
BuyerLNG project operator
AI systems in the measurement7
Competitors in the universe4
Choice scenarios2
Reaches the AI recommendation42%
Universe median1.5
Competitors' share of the primary choice0%
Measurement periodQ1 2026

A point-in-time measurement: a slice on a date, without smoothing or trends.

Presence map

Choice Control Index LNG project operator

A model projection by buyer type on the Russia market: a cell estimates the share of scenarios in which the AI assistant puts the company on the primary shortlist. The study's buyer is measured; other types are derived from it.

🏳️RussiaAverage CCI
Operator of a new LNG project44
Regasification terminal operator42
Distributor43
Procurement buyer39
Public procurement39
Average CCI4141
CCI 0100 — Cell CCI

Empty cells are markets where the measurement has not been collected yet.

The largest gap is on the priority export markets with the highest capacity: the larger the demand, the denser it is taken by competitors.

39CCI
Procurement buyer · Russia

Buyer type «Procurement buyer» in the Russia market: CCI 39. The primary choice is formed mostly between competitors.

Choice scenarios in the cell

Choosing a liquefaction technology for a new train
7 AI systems · RU, EN
Localising units of an operating train
7 AI systems · RU, EN

The key scenarios are shown; the full list is in the analysis.

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Interpretation

What this means

The company enters the primary AI choice with an index of 39 out of 100. This is not an assessment of the product — it is an assessment of how machine-readably the company is present in the sources AI systems rely on.

This is manageable. The cells with the highest index show that, given a structured argument, the systems readily put the company into the shortlist. The task is to extend that to the remaining cells.

Index sensitivity

Wave Q1 2026

What a higher position can change

Change the target CCI and source coverage to see the model's sensitivity. The calculation shows a possible change of position inside the model and is not a revenue forecast.

Move the target index level — the model recalculates what share of the category is redistributed.

Target CCI level70/100
CCI 70 · current measurement 39 · category median 2
Coverage of choice sources35%
share of the shortlist-forming sources where the company is present
Measured
Current CCI39Wave Q1 2026
Target CCI70+31 over the measurement
Model
Model shortlist presence94.8%now 56.0%
Model change of category share+0.45 ppcategory share

Model assumptions

Reachable market — $0 mn
1 CCI pt ≈ $0 mn of category capacity (not the company's revenue)
Industry coefficients, not calibrated to the company's data
Returns diminish: the last index points cost more
The model does not account for the regulatory constraints of individual markets

Analytical summary

Key findings of the study

A participation gap, not a quality one
The company shows up in the discussion but rarely reaches the recommendation: participation index 80 against win index 49. A product is not knocked out of the shortlist — it never gets in.
Above the universe median
The company leads the segment universe; the gap to second place is 37 points.
Where the choice is lost
The main loss factor is “Fewer operating trains than the foreign processes”, named in 55% of answers.
The economic weight of the gap
The position in the AI choice decides how much of the demand reaches consideration.
The index is built out of sources
The leaders' advantage is the density of structured sources, not the price of the product. That is exactly what makes the index manageable.

Measurement

Measured: the Choice Control Index, the participation and win indices, the composition of shortlists in the choice scenarios.

Projection

Projected: the distribution across buyer types, the reachable market and the sensitivity of category share to the index. These are model estimates, not a measurement.

Wave Q1 2026 · CCI methodology v1.0 · measurement systems: ChatGPT · Perplexity · Google AI · Gemini · Claude · Yandex

Citation

CCI methodology v1.0

How to cite the index

The release data is open for citation in media, analytical materials and academic work with a reference to the source.

Permanent link

GolOps. Choice Control Index: Novatek. Wave Q1 2026, CCI methodology v1.0. GolOps Research, 2026.

https://golops.io/companies/novatek/russia-lng-operator

For media

The release charts are available for publication. A comment from the research group is provided on request.

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Data correction

Companies mentioned in the release can submit corrections. Justified discrepancies are taken into the next wave.

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Manageability

This can bechanged.

The index can be changed: it is built out of sources, and sources are manageable.

Start with a diagnostic — an analysis of 5 cells and a plan for the priority markets.

Request a diagnostic

Profile and inclusion criterion

Novatek

“Arctic Cascade” is named as a domestic alternative, but at the evaluation stage the AI systems point to its smaller number of operating trains compared with foreign processes.

Choice question: Choosing a liquefaction technology for localising a new LNG project in Russia

Universe of the “Natural gas liquefaction technology × Russia” study: 4 objects in the choice funnel, one methodology, one wave.

This is a managerial gap, not a reputational one: the sources AI systems rely on do not carry structured data about the company in the form they quote for its competitors.

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Data verification

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