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Decision journey study

How Russian liquefaction technology appears in the algorithmic choice of LNG project operators in Russia

LNG project operator · localising the liquefaction technology

64/ 100

64 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Russia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of NovatekNovatekRussia
    H17 mo

    Remove doubts about technology maturity.

    Shortlist5662AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +11%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekRussia
    H27 mo

    Enter direct comparison with foreign processes.

    Shortlist5661AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +9%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekRussia
    H37 mo

    Remove the delivery-time risk.

    Shortlist5660AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    +7%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Cryogenmash
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for Cryogenmash. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Russian and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Novatek appear in 88% of answers but get only 42% of recommendations?

We traced how Novatek passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing a liquefaction technology for a new train» · journey «Problem-first» · Russia · languages RU, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
NovatekRU
88%
Linde
38%
Air Liquide
33%
Chart Industries
30%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
NovatekRU
81%
Linde
28%
Air Liquide
24%
Chart Industries
21%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
NovatekRU
70%
Linde
18%
Air Liquide
15%
Chart Industries
13%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
NovatekRU
56%
Linde
9%
Air Liquide
7%
Chart Industries
6%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
NovatekRU
42%
Linde
4%
Air Liquide
3%
Chart Industries
2%
Where the choice is lostNovatek
−7
−11
−14largest loss
−14largest loss

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index80first three stages
Win index49shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

“Arctic Cascade” is named as a domestic alternative, but at the evaluation stage the AI systems point to its smaller number of operating trains compared with foreign processes.

Point of maximum loss

−14pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

Novatek · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Fewer operating trains than the foreign processes
55%
Specific-consumption figures are only partly disclosed
43%
Delivery times for long-lead equipment are unconfirmed
35%
Limited experience on large-tonnage trains
27%
Few independent technical publications
19%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Novatek for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
RussiaRU#1 · leader
Novatek
49
Germany#2 · −42 pts
A widely referenced process, limited supply.
Linde
7
France#3 · −44 pts
The technology is available outside the Russian perimeter.
Air Liquide
5
USA#4 · −45 pts
Equipment for small-scale trains.
Chart Industries
4

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of NovatekRecommended for Novatek · Russia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show your technology is proven in operation

    Publish data on your operating liquefaction lines so buyers can see real operating experience.

    Forecast+6pts to the index
  2. 02

    Let buyers compare you with foreign alternatives

    Disclose your process's unit performance figures so buyers can compare it directly with foreign technologies.

    Forecast+5pts to the index
  3. 03

    Show you can deliver equipment on time

    Confirm delivery times for key components so buyers can plan their projects with confidence.

    Forecast+4pts to the index

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+15pts to the index6479index 64 → 79Model estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Fewer operating trains than the foreign processes” · 55% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Specific-consumption figures are only partly disclosed” · 43% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Delivery times for long-lead equipment are unconfirmed” · 35% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · RU, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
015Какую технологию сжижения выбрать для нового СПГ-проекта в России?ChatGPTRU…называют «Арктический каскад» как отечественный процесс с работающей линией. Зарубежные процессы Linde и Air Liquide описываются как ограниченные по поставке…
044Which liquefaction technologies are available for a Russian LNG project?PerplexityEN…domestic Arctic Cascade is named as the available option; Linde and Air Liquide processes are described as constrained for this market…
001Кто основные поставщики технологии сжижения СПГ в России?PerplexityRU…первыми называют Linde и Air Liquide; Novatek известен как крупный производитель, но в списках квалификации появляется редко…
002Who are the leading LNG liquefaction technology suppliers for Russia?GeminiEN…Linde and Air Liquide are named first; Novatek is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Какие компании поставляют технологии сжижения СПГ в России?ClaudeRU…короткий список строится вокруг Linde и Air Liquide. Novatek упоминается только когда спрашивают об альтернативах…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Natural gas liquefaction technology × Russia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
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Photos: authors and licences