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Other studies in this categoryIndia · Regasification terminal operatorRussia · LNG project operator
Decision journey study

How Russian gas liquefaction technology appears in the algorithmic choice of UAE LNG project operators

Operator of a new LNG project · choosing the liquefaction technology

18/ 100

18 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
+4 vs Q4 2025UAE · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · UAE
$2–3bn / year

2025

Confidence: lowderived estimate
Basis
project value awarded
Sources
ADNOC Gas — $2.1 billion contract awardMitsui — FID for the Ruwais LNG Project

The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of NovatekNovatekUAE
    H18 mo

    Remove the hot-climate objection.

    Shortlist615AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    ×2.5to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekUAE
    H28 mo

    Pass evaluation with operating-train experience.

    Shortlist614AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    ×2.3to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of NovatekNovatekUAE
    H37 mo

    Build trust through regional service.

    Shortlist612AI answers out of 100 that name Novatek
    ×2to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Cryogenmash
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for Cryogenmash. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Arabic and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Novatek appear in 58% of answers but get only 2% of recommendations?

We traced how Novatek passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing a liquefaction technology for a new LNG project» · journey «Problem-first» · UAE · languages AR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
NovatekRU
58%
Air Products
94%
Linde Engineering
89%
Baker Hughes
86%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
NovatekRU
44%
Air Products
89%
Linde Engineering
83%
Baker Hughes
79%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
NovatekRU
22%
Air Products
81%
Linde Engineering
73%
Baker Hughes
68%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
NovatekRU
6%
Air Products
68%
Linde Engineering
58%
Baker Hughes
52%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
NovatekRU
2%
Air Products
49%
Linde Engineering
40%
Baker Hughes
34%
Where the choice is lostNovatek
−14
−22largest loss
−16
−4

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index41first three stages
Win index4shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

Arctic Cascade is mentioned as a standalone Russian technology, but the AI systems tie it to Arctic conditions and rarely consider it for Persian Gulf projects.

Point of maximum loss

−22pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Consideration» and «Evaluation»

Novatek · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

The technology is associated only with Arctic conditions
68%
No reference in the hot Persian Gulf climate
59%
Sanctions restrictions on equipment and service
54%
Little English- and Arabic-language technical documentation
43%
Uncertainty over the long-term service contract
31%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Novatek for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
USA#1 · leader
AP-C3MR and AP-X · dominant in large-tonnage projects.
Air Products
59
Germany#2 · −10 pts
Liquefaction technology and full engineering.
Linde Engineering
49
USA#3 · −16 pts
Turbomachinery and compressor trains for LNG.
Baker Hughes
43
RussiaRU#4 · −55 pts
Novatek
4

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of NovatekRecommended for Novatek · UAE

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show your technology works in hot climates

    Publish how the technology performs at the high ambient temperatures typical of UAE projects.

    Forecast+9pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $18 mn / year
  2. 02

    Prove to buyers your lines already operate

    Gather data on your operating liquefaction lines into clear, easily searchable materials.

    Forecast+8pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $16 mn / year
  3. 03

    Get closer to buyers in the region

    Prepare materials in Arabic and show your service presence across the Gulf region.

    Forecast+6pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $12 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+23pts to the index1841index 18 → 41≈ $46 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “The technology is associated only with Arctic conditions” · 68% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “No reference in the hot Persian Gulf climate” · 59% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Little English- and Arabic-language technical documentation” · 43% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · AR, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
011ما هي تقنيات إسالة الغاز الطبيعي الأنسب لمشروع جديد في الإمارات؟ClaudeAR…تُذكر عادةً تقنيات Air Products وLinde. التقنية الروسية Arctic Cascade مصممة للظروف القطبية ونادراً ما تُقترح لمنطقة الخليج…
043Which liquefaction technologies should we evaluate for a mid-scale LNG train in the Gulf?ChatGPTEN…Air Products AP-C3MR, Linde and ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade dominate. NOVATEK's Arctic Cascade is noted as proven but climate-specific and constrained by sanctions…
001من هم أبرز موردي تسييل الغاز الطبيعي المسال في الإمارات؟PerplexityAR…تُذكر Air Products وLinde Engineering أولاً؛ Novatek معروفة بالحجم لكنها نادراً ما تظهر في قوائم التأهيل…
002Who are the leading LNG liquefaction technology suppliers for the UAE?GeminiEN…Air Products and Linde Engineering are named first; Novatek is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003ما الشركات التي توفر تسييل الغاز الطبيعي المسال في الإمارات؟ClaudeAR…تُبنى القائمة القصيرة حول Air Products وLinde Engineering. تُذكر Novatek فقط عند السؤال عن البدائل…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Natural gas liquefaction technology × UAE

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$2–3 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · UAE

Novatek loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

Novatek — 6% · Air Products — 68%. In 68% of observations one of the reasons is the technology is associated only with Arctic conditions.

  • GEO · UAE

    Technology parameters for hot climates

    Publish technology parameters for high ambient temperatures.

    Expected effect+9 pts to the index1 contractor
  • GEO · UAE

    Record of operating trains

    Structure the record of operating trains.

    Expected effect+8 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · UAE

    Arabic-language materials for the region

    Produce Arabic-language materials for the region.

    Expected effect+6 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences