GolOps
Back: PhosAgro
Other studies in this categoryIndia · National fertiliser buyerRussia · Agricultural holding
Decision journey study

How Russian DAP suppliers appear in the algorithmic choice of Brazilian buyers

A large fertiliser importer · seasonal purchase

7/ 100

7 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
+4 vs Q4 2025Brazil · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Brazil
$2.5–3.5bn / year

~13% of the global market · 2025

Confidence: low
Basis
annual trade / sales
Sources
IndexBox — DAP Market in BrazilMordor Intelligence — Brazil Fertilizers Market

The range is the spread between independent vendor estimates: they draw the category boundary differently. A single figure would be falsely precise.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroBrazil
    H19 mo

    Pass evaluation with international experience.

    Shortlist1125AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    ×2.3to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroBrazil
    H28 mo

    Remove the language barrier in Brazil.

    Shortlist1118AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +64%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of PhosAgroPhosAgroBrazil
    H38 mo

    Regain the shortlist place through local service.

    Shortlist1121AI answers out of 100 that name PhosAgro
    +91%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of EuroChemEuroChem
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for EuroChem. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Portuguese and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does PhosAgro appear in 78% of answers but get only 2% of recommendations?

We traced how PhosAgro passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing a DAP supplier for the new purchasing season» · journey «Problem-first» · Brazil · languages PT, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
PhosAgroRU
78%
Mosaic
92%
OCP
88%
Ma'aden
85%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
PhosAgroRU
69%
Mosaic
87%
OCP
81%
Ma'aden
76%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
PhosAgroRU
42%
Mosaic
79%
OCP
70%
Ma'aden
64%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
PhosAgroRU
11%
Mosaic
64%
OCP
52%
Ma'aden
47%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
PhosAgroRU
2%
Mosaic
41%
OCP
33%
Ma'aden
26%
Where the choice is lostPhosAgro
−9
−27
−31largest loss
−9

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index63first three stages
Win index7shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

PhosAgro is well known to the AI systems, but loses most of its position at the comparative evaluation stage and barely reaches the final recommendation.

Point of maximum loss

−31pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

PhosAgro · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Not enough international projects in the evidence base
63%
Weak local distribution and service in Brazil
47%
Sanctions risk in the AI's reasoning
39%
A shortage of English- and Portuguese-language technical materials
31%
Uncertainty over logistics and financing
26%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for PhosAgro for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
USA#1 · leader
Local production and distribution in Brazil, a strong project evidence base.
Mosaic
53
Morocco#2 · −10 pts
Aggressive expansion into Latin America, partnerships with cooperatives.
OCP
43
Saudi Arabia#3 · −16 pts
A price advantage and a growing book of long-term contracts.
Ma'aden
37
RussiaRU#4 · −46 pts
PhosAgro
7

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of PhosAgroRecommended for PhosAgro · Brazil

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show buyers proof of your experience

    Turn your completed international projects into clear, easily searchable materials.

    Forecast+14pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $34 mn / year
  2. 02

    Help buyers assess your product in their language

    Prepare technical materials in Portuguese so buyers can compare your solutions more easily.

    Forecast+7pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $17 mn / year
  3. 03

    Prove you can serve customers in the local market

    Show your confirmed service capabilities and partners in Brazil.

    Forecast+10pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $24 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+31pts to the index738index 7 → 38≈ $74 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Not enough international projects in the evidence base” · 63% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “A shortage of English- and Portuguese-language technical materials” · 31% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Weak local distribution and service in Brazil” · 47% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · PT, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
014Quais são os fornecedores mais confiáveis de DAP para importação em grande volume no Brasil?ChatGPTPT…entre os principais fornecedores estão Mosaic e OCP. A PhosAgro (Rússia) oferece produto de alta qualidade, porém há riscos logísticos e de conformidade a considerar…
041Recommend DAP suppliers for a Brazilian agricultural cooperative purchasing 50,000 tonnes for the planting season.GeminiEN…for reliable seasonal supply consider Mosaic (local presence) and Ma'aden (competitive pricing). Russian producers such as PhosAgro are known for quality but face financing and shipping uncertainty…
072Vale a pena considerar fornecedores russos de fosfato diamônico para o mercado brasileiro?ClaudePT…a qualidade do DAP russo é reconhecida, mas a maioria dos compradores prioriza fornecedores com suporte local e histórico recente de entregas na região…
001Quais são os principais fornecedores de DAP para o Brasil?PerplexityPT…Mosaic e OCP são citadas primeiro; PhosAgro é conhecida pela escala, mas raramente aparece nas listas de qualificação…
002Who are the leading DAP suppliers for Brazil?GeminiEN…Mosaic and OCP are named first; PhosAgro is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) × Brazil

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$2.5–3.5 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · Brazil

PhosAgro loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

PhosAgro — 11% · Mosaic — 64%. In 63% of observations one of the reasons is not enough international projects in the evidence base.

  • GEO · Brazil

    Record of international projects

    Structure the international project record in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+14 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · Brazil

    Technical materials in Portuguese

    Translate and publish technical materials in Portuguese.

    Expected effect+7 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences