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Decision journey study

How Russian ERP platforms appear in the algorithmic choice of UAE customers

CIO of a state corporation · enterprise platform tender

11/ 100

11 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
+4 vs Q4 2025UAE · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · UAE
$0.6–0.7bn / year

2025

Confidence: medium
Basis
annual corporate spend
Sources
Grand View Research — UAE ERP Software MarketResearch and Markets — UAE ERP Software Market 2025-2030

The range is the spread between independent vendor estimates: they draw the category boundary differently. A single figure would be falsely precise.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of 1C1CUAE
    H17 mo

    Enter the consideration field with a first regional deployment.

    Shortlist39AI answers out of 100 that name 1C
    ×3to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of 1C1CUAE
    H27 mo

    Enter consideration through a local partner.

    Shortlist38AI answers out of 100 that name 1C
    ×2.7to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of 1C1CUAE
    H37 mo

    Meet the data sovereignty requirement.

    Shortlist37AI answers out of 100 that name 1C
    ×2.3to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Astra Group
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for Astra Group. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Arabic and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does 1C appear in 38% of answers but get only 1% of recommendations?

We traced how 1C passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing an enterprise platform for a state-corporation tender» · journey «Problem-first» · UAE · languages AR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
1CRU
38%
SAP
95%
Oracle
92%
Microsoft Dynamics 365
88%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
1CRU
24%
SAP
91%
Oracle
86%
Microsoft Dynamics 365
80%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
1CRU
11%
SAP
84%
Oracle
77%
Microsoft Dynamics 365
69%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
1CRU
3%
SAP
72%
Oracle
63%
Microsoft Dynamics 365
53%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
1CRU
1%
SAP
54%
Oracle
44%
Microsoft Dynamics 365
35%
Where the choice is lost1C
−14largest loss
−13
−8
−2

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index24first three stages
Win index2shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

On the UAE market Russian ERPs barely enter the consideration field: the AI systems build the shortlist from global vendors and regional integrators, without linking Russian products to this category.

Point of maximum loss

−14pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Discovery» and «Consideration»

1C · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Absence from the regional deployment evidence base
78%
No Arabic-language materials and no local support
63%
Compliance and sanctions risk in the AI's reasoning
55%
No integrator partners in the Gulf region
47%
The product is not linked to the ERP category in English-language sources
41%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for 1C for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
Germany#1 · leader
Dominant in the Gulf public sector and large corporations.
SAP
63
USA#2 · −9 pts
Large deployments in the region's oil and gas sector.
Oracle
54
USA#3 · −19 pts
Cloud deployments and local data centres.
Microsoft Dynamics 365
44
RussiaRU#4 · −61 pts
1C
2

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of 1CRecommended for 1C · UAE

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show buyers a live deployment in the region

    Prepare and publish your first public deployment example in the Gulf region.

    Forecast+6pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $3 mn / year
  2. 02

    Speak to UAE buyers in Arabic

    Prepare materials in Arabic and introduce a local partner who can support customers on the ground.

    Forecast+5pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $3 mn / year
  3. 03

    Explain to buyers where their data will be stored

    Describe how customer data is stored within the UAE and who controls access to it.

    Forecast+4pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $2 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+15pts to the index1126index 11 → 26≈ $8 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Absence from the regional deployment evidence base” · 78% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “No Arabic-language materials and no local support” · 63% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Compliance and sanctions risk in the AI's reasoning” · 55% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · AR, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
016ما هي أنظمة تخطيط موارد المؤسسات المناسبة لشركة حكومية في الإمارات؟GeminiAR…تهيمن SAP وOracle على هذا القطاع، مع شركاء تنفيذ محليين. لم تُذكر حلول روسية ضمن الخيارات المتاحة…
052List ERP vendors suitable for a UAE government-owned enterprise with data residency requirements.ChatGPTEN…SAP, Oracle and Microsoft dominate, with regional hosting partners. Russian ERP products do not appear in the considered set for this market…
001من هم أبرز موردي ERP في الإمارات؟PerplexityAR…تُذكر SAP وOracle أولاً؛ 1C معروفة بالحجم لكنها نادراً ما تظهر في قوائم التأهيل…
002Who are the leading ERP suppliers for the UAE?GeminiEN…SAP and Oracle are named first; 1C is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003ما الشركات التي توفر ERP في الإمارات؟ClaudeAR…تُبنى القائمة القصيرة حول SAP وOracle. تُذكر 1C فقط عند السؤال عن البدائل…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

ERP × UAE

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$0.6–0.7 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · UAE

1C loses the choice at the stage «Evaluation»

1C — 11% · SAP — 84%. In 78% of observations one of the reasons is absence from the regional deployment evidence base.

  • Content · UAE

    Arabic-language materials for the region

    Produce Arabic-language materials for the region.

    Expected effect+5 pts to the index1 contractor
  • PR · UAE

    Sovereign data hosting model

    Document the sovereign data hosting model.

    Expected effect+4 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences