GolOps
Decision journey study

How Russian oil and gas pipe appears in the algorithmic choice of domestic buyers

Buyer at an oil and gas company · OCTG supplier qualification

73/ 100

73 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Russia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Photo: Joshua Doubek · CC BY-SA 3.0

The choice happens right here.

On a specific scenario and in the relevant languages we show where the company holds a strong position and where it starts to lose it.

Pick a company and find out why it loses the position, who takes its place, what the economic effect is and what can be changed.

AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.

Choice scenarios

The scenario is the economic task being measured. It sits below the market: each market has its own scenarios. Switching it recomputes the stages of choice, the point of maximum loss, the journey comparison, and the forecast under “Points of intervention”. The key finding, the loss factors, and the competitors belong to the measurement as a whole.

Language is a run condition, not a separate scenario: the same economic task is asked in the local language and in English. The gap between them is visible in the raw observations at the bottom of the page.

Compare the scenarios across journeys →
Choice journey

Passing the stages of choice

Share of AI-system answers where the object passes each stage of choice and stays in the buyer's consideration field. The early stages make up the Participation Index, the shortlist and recommendation — the Win Index.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Qualifying suppliers for a new production project» · journey «Problem-first» · Russia · languages RU, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
TMKRU
93%
Tenaris
36%
Vallourec
31%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
42%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
TMKRU
88%
Tenaris
26%
Vallourec
22%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
32%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
TMKRU
81%
Tenaris
16%
Vallourec
13%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
21%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
TMKRU
72%
Tenaris
8%
Vallourec
6%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
11%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
TMKRU
60%
Tenaris
3%
Vallourec
2%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
5%
Where the choice is lostTMK
−5
−7
−9
−12largest loss

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index87first three stages
Win index66shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

TMK and OMK are named first and reach the recommendation: the open questions concern premium threaded connections for demanding wells.

Point of maximum loss

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Shortlist» and «Recommendation» −12 pp for TMK on the selected journey.

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

The premium threaded connection range is presented more narrowly than competitors'
51%
Corrosion-resistance data is only partly disclosed
41%
Few public tests under demanding conditions
33%
Lead times for non-standard positions are unconfirmed
25%
Field service is thinly described
18%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for TMK for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
Luxembourg#3 · −60 pts
Premium connections, limited supply.
Tenaris
6

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from findings to action

What implementation givessample analysis

Each hypothesis is a verifiable action with a forecast of the index gain. Approve the ones you take on — implementation starts from your confirmation.

  1. 01loss factor · 51% of answers

    Publishing test reports for premium connections will settle the main question of the evaluation.

    The premium threaded connection range is presented more narrowly than competitors'

    Forecast+5pts to the index
  2. 02loss factor · 41% of answers

    Disclosing corrosion-resistance data will add an argument in the comparison.

    Corrosion-resistance data is only partly disclosed

    Forecast+4pts to the index
  3. 03loss factor · 33% of answers

    A confirmed field service network will strengthen the position ahead of the shortlist.

    Few public tests under demanding conditions

    Forecast+3pts to the index
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

Hand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns hypotheses into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potential+12pts to the index7385index 73 → 85forecast · model
For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · RU, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
011Каких поставщиков обсадных труб рассматривать для нового месторождения в России?ChatGPTRU…называют ТМК и ОМК как основных поставщиков с полной линейкой. Tenaris и Vallourec упоминаются по премиальным соединениям, но с оговоркой о поставке…
047Which OCTG suppliers serve upstream projects in Russia?YandexGPTEN…TMK and OMK are named as the primary suppliers; premium connections from Tenaris are mentioned with delivery constraints…
001Кто основные поставщики OCTG в России?PerplexityRU…первыми называют Tenaris и Vallourec; TMK известен как крупный производитель, но в списках квалификации появляется редко…
002Who are the leading OCTG suppliers for Russia?GeminiEN…Tenaris and Vallourec are named first; TMK is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Какие компании поставляют OCTG в России?ClaudeRU…короткий список строится вокруг Tenaris и Vallourec. TMK упоминается только когда спрашивают об альтернативах…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Oil and gas pipe (OCTG) × Russia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts

Photo: Aciarium (CC BY-SA 4.0), Vyacheslav Bukharov (CC BY-SA 4.0)