How Russian oil and gas pipe makers appear in the algorithmic choice of Saudi buyers
Buyer on an oil and gas project · OCTG supplier qualification
9 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first
The choice happens right here.
On a specific scenario and in the relevant languages we show where the company holds a strong position and where it starts to lose it.
Pick a company and find out why it loses the position, who takes its place, what the economic effect is and what can be changed.
The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.
Choice scenarios
The scenario is the economic task being measured. It sits below the market: each market has its own scenarios. Switching it recomputes the stages of choice, the point of maximum loss, the journey comparison, and the forecast under “Points of intervention”. The key finding, the loss factors, and the competitors belong to the measurement as a whole.
Language is a run condition, not a separate scenario: the same economic task is asked in the local language and in English. The gap between them is visible in the raw observations at the bottom of the page.
Compare the scenarios across journeys →Passing the stages of choice
Share of AI-system answers where the object passes each stage of choice and stays in the buyer's consideration field. The early stages make up the Participation Index, the shortlist and recommendation — the Win Index.
Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing an OCTG supplier for a new oil and gas project» · journey «Problem-first» · Saudi Arabia · languages AR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026
Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.
A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.
TMK is recognised as a large producer, but at the evaluation stage it loses on premium threaded connections and operator qualification, and rarely reaches the shortlist.
The largest loss occurs between the stages «Consideration» and «Evaluation» −25 pp for TMK on the selected journey.
Why the position is lost
Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.
Position depends on the journey and on the scenario
Probability of a final recommendation for TMK for each decision journey, in both scenarios.
The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.
Who takes the place
Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.
What implementation givessample analysis
Each hypothesis is a verifiable action with a forecast of the index gain. Approve the ones you take on — implementation starts from your confirmation.
- 01loss factor · 71% of answers
Publishing the list of qualifications and API standards in machine-readable form will raise passage through the evaluation stage.
No qualification with the operator or in industry registers
Forecast+9pts to the indexEconomic potential≈ $19 mn / year - 02loss factor · 62% of answers
Presenting premium threaded connections as a product in their own right will close the key objection.
Premium threaded connections are not reflected in the sources
Forecast+8pts to the indexEconomic potential≈ $17 mn / year - 03loss factor · 58% of answers
A regional service partnership will add a trust signal on the transition into the shortlist.
Sanctions and logistics risk in the AI's reasoning
Forecast+8pts to the indexEconomic potential≈ $17 mn / year
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.
Check the conclusions against the raw observations
Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.
How the measurement works- 170
- observations
- 7
- AI systems
- 2
- languages · AR, EN
- Q1 2026
- measurement
Oil and gas pipe (OCTG) × Saudi Arabia
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TMK loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»
TMK — 7% · Tenaris — 71%. In 71% of observations one of the reasons is no qualification with the operator or in industry registers.
- GEO · Saudi Arabia
Qualifications and API standards
Publish the list of qualifications and API standards in machine-readable form.
Expected effect+9 pts to the index1 contractor - PR · Saudi Arabia
Premium connections as their own product
Present premium threaded connections as a product in their own right.
Expected effect+8 pts to the index1 contractor
Photo: Aciarium (CC BY-SA 4.0), Vyacheslav Bukharov (CC BY-SA 4.0)