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Other studies in this categorySaudi Arabia · Buyer on an oil and gas projectIndia · Buyer at a national oil and gas company
Decision journey study

How Russian oil and gas pipe appears in the algorithmic choice of domestic buyers

Buyer at an oil and gas company · OCTG supplier qualification

73/ 100

73 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Russia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of TMKTMKRussia
    H17 mo

    Settle the main question about premium connections.

    Shortlist7278AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    +8%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of TMKTMKRussia
    H27 mo

    Win the comparison on corrosion resistance.

    Shortlist7276AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    +6%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of TMKTMKRussia
    H36 mo

    Enter the shortlist through field service.

    Shortlist7274AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    +3%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • OMK
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for OMK. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Russian and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does TMK appear in 93% of answers but get only 60% of recommendations?

We traced how TMK passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Qualifying suppliers for a new production project» · journey «Problem-first» · Russia · languages RU, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
TMKRU
93%
Tenaris
36%
Vallourec
31%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
42%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
TMKRU
88%
Tenaris
26%
Vallourec
22%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
32%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
TMKRU
81%
Tenaris
16%
Vallourec
13%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
21%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
TMKRU
72%
Tenaris
8%
Vallourec
6%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
11%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
TMKRU
60%
Tenaris
3%
Vallourec
2%
Baoshan Iron & Steel
5%
Where the choice is lostTMK
−5
−7
−9
−12largest loss

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index87first three stages
Win index66shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

TMK and OMK are named first and reach the recommendation: the open questions concern premium threaded connections for demanding wells.

Point of maximum loss

−12pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Shortlist» and «Recommendation»

TMK · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

The premium threaded connection range is presented more narrowly than competitors'
51%
Corrosion-resistance data is only partly disclosed
41%
Few public tests under demanding conditions
33%
Lead times for non-standard positions are unconfirmed
25%
Field service is thinly described
18%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for TMK for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
RussiaRU#1 · leader
TMK
66
China#2 · −58 pts
A growing presence in selected positions.
Baoshan Iron & Steel
8
Luxembourg#3 · −60 pts
Premium connections, limited supply.
Tenaris
6
France#4 · −62 pts
References exist, the supply channel is closed.
Vallourec
4

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of TMKRecommended for TMK · Russia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show buyers how your connections performed in testing

    Publish test reports for your premium threaded connections so buyers can see the results.

    Forecast+6pts to the index
  2. 02

    Let buyers compare your pipes' corrosion resistance

    Disclose full corrosion-resistance data so buyers can compare you with competitors more easily.

    Forecast+4pts to the index
  3. 03

    Prove you can support your customers' oilfields

    Describe your confirmed oilfield service network: where you operate and what services you provide.

    Forecast+2pts to the index

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+12pts to the index7385index 73 → 85Model estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “The premium threaded connection range is presented more narrowly than competitors'” · 51% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Corrosion-resistance data is only partly disclosed” · 41% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Field service is thinly described” · 18% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · RU, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
011Каких поставщиков обсадных труб рассматривать для нового месторождения в России?ChatGPTRU…называют ТМК и ОМК как основных поставщиков с полной линейкой. Tenaris и Vallourec упоминаются по премиальным соединениям, но с оговоркой о поставке…
047Which OCTG suppliers serve upstream projects in Russia?YandexGPTEN…TMK and OMK are named as the primary suppliers; premium connections from Tenaris are mentioned with delivery constraints…
001Кто основные поставщики OCTG в России?PerplexityRU…первыми называют Tenaris и Vallourec; TMK известен как крупный производитель, но в списках квалификации появляется редко…
002Who are the leading OCTG suppliers for Russia?GeminiEN…Tenaris and Vallourec are named first; TMK is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Какие компании поставляют OCTG в России?ClaudeRU…короткий список строится вокруг Tenaris и Vallourec. TMK упоминается только когда спрашивают об альтернативах…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Oil and gas pipe (OCTG) × Russia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
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