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Back: TMK
Other studies in this categoryIndia · Buyer at a national oil and gas companyRussia · Buyer at an oil and gas company
Decision journey study

How Russian oil and gas pipe makers appear in the algorithmic choice of Saudi buyers

Buyer on an oil and gas project · OCTG supplier qualification

9/ 100

9 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-5 vs Q4 2025Saudi Arabia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Saudi Arabia
$2.4–2.9bn / year

2025

Confidence: mediumderived estimate
Basis
annual equipment procurement
Sources
Fortune Business Insights — Oil Country Tubular Goods MarketMordor Intelligence — Middle-East OCTG Market

The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of TMKTMKSaudi Arabia
    H18 mo

    Pass qualification with oil and gas buyers.

    Shortlist717AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    ×2.4to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of TMKTMKSaudi Arabia
    H28 mo

    Close the main objection on premium connections.

    Shortlist716AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    ×2.3to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of TMKTMKSaudi Arabia
    H37 mo

    Enter the shortlist through regional service.

    Shortlist713AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    +86%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • OMK
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for OMK. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Arabic and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does TMK appear in 63% of answers but get only 2% of recommendations?

We traced how TMK passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing an OCTG supplier for a new oil and gas project» · journey «Problem-first» · Saudi Arabia · languages AR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
TMKRU
63%
Tenaris
95%
Vallourec
90%
Nippon Steel
86%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
TMKRU
49%
Tenaris
90%
Vallourec
84%
Nippon Steel
79%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
TMKRU
24%
Tenaris
83%
Vallourec
75%
Nippon Steel
69%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
TMKRU
7%
Tenaris
71%
Vallourec
60%
Nippon Steel
53%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
TMKRU
2%
Tenaris
53%
Vallourec
42%
Nippon Steel
35%
Where the choice is lostTMK
−14
−25largest loss
−17
−5

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index45first three stages
Win index5shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

TMK is recognised as a large producer, but at the evaluation stage it loses on premium threaded connections and operator qualification, and rarely reaches the shortlist.

Point of maximum loss

−25pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Consideration» and «Evaluation»

TMK · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

No qualification with the operator or in industry registers
71%
Premium threaded connections are not reflected in the sources
62%
Sanctions and logistics risk in the AI's reasoning
58%
No field service in the Gulf region
46%
Little English- and Arabic-language technical documentation
38%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for TMK for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
Luxembourg · Italy#1 · leader
Premium threads, field service.
Tenaris
62
France#2 · −11 pts
Deepwater and HPHT solutions.
Vallourec
51
Japan#3 · −18 pts
High-strength grades, a long qualification cycle.
Nippon Steel
44
RussiaRU#4 · −57 pts
TMK
5

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of TMKRecommended for TMK · Saudi Arabia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show buyers your pipes are already qualified

    Gather your qualifications and API standard compliance into one open, searchable list for Saudi buyers.

    Forecast+10pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $21 mn / year
  2. 02

    Present premium connections as a product in their own right

    Present your premium threaded connections as a standalone product, with specifications and areas of application.

    Forecast+9pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $19 mn / year
  3. 03

    Prove you can support oilfields in the region

    Agree a service partnership in the Gulf region and make it visible to buyers.

    Forecast+6pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $13 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+25pts to the index934index 9 → 34≈ $53 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “No qualification with the operator or in industry registers” · 71% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Premium threaded connections are not reflected in the sources” · 62% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “No field service in the Gulf region” · 46% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · AR, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
012من هم أفضل موردي أنابيب OCTG لمشروع نفطي جديد في السعودية؟ChatGPTAR…تُذكر Tenaris وVallourec أولاً بسبب الوصلات المتميزة والخدمة الميدانية. الشركات الروسية مثل TMK معروفة بالحجم لكنها نادراً ما تظهر في قوائم التأهيل…
049Which OCTG suppliers can meet premium connection requirements for a Saudi upstream project?ClaudeEN…Tenaris and Vallourec dominate premium connections. TMK is recognised as a large producer, but operator qualification and regional service coverage are cited as gaps…
001من هم أبرز موردي OCTG في السعودية؟PerplexityAR…تُذكر Tenaris وVallourec أولاً؛ TMK معروفة بالحجم لكنها نادراً ما تظهر في قوائم التأهيل…
002Who are the leading OCTG suppliers for Saudi Arabia?GeminiEN…Tenaris and Vallourec are named first; TMK is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003ما الشركات التي توفر OCTG في السعودية؟ClaudeAR…تُبنى القائمة القصيرة حول Tenaris وVallourec. تُذكر TMK فقط عند السؤال عن البدائل…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Oil and gas pipe (OCTG) × Saudi Arabia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$2.4–2.9 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · Saudi Arabia

TMK loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

TMK — 7% · Tenaris — 71%. In 71% of observations one of the reasons is no qualification with the operator or in industry registers.

  • GEO · Saudi Arabia

    Qualifications and API standards

    Publish the list of qualifications and API standards in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+10 pts to the index1 contractor
  • PR · Saudi Arabia

    Premium connections as their own product

    Present premium threaded connections as a product in their own right.

    Expected effect+9 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences