GolOps
Back: Rosatom
Other studies in this categoryIndonesia · State energy operatorRussia · State energy operator
Decision journey study

How Russian small modular reactors appear in the algorithmic choice of the Turkish nuclear programme

State customer · small nuclear generation programme

31/ 100

31 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-5 vs Q4 2025Turkey · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Turkey
$0.3–0.5bn / year

2026

Confidence: lowderived estimate
Basis
project value awarded
Sources
AGBI — Turkish-US venture to build 20 small modular reactorsDaily Sabah — IC Holding targets 20 SMRs with ARC

The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • RosatomTurkey
    H19 mo

    Make the small-capacity line a choice in its own right.

    Shortlist1729AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +71%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • RosatomTurkey
    H28 mo

    Enter consideration in the Turkish nuclear programme.

    Shortlist1725AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +47%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • RosatomTurkey
    H38 mo

    Remove the main objection: no reference abroad.

    Shortlist1724AI answers out of 100 that name Rosatom
    +41%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of AtomstroyexportAtomstroyexport
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for Atomstroyexport. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Turkish and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Rosatom appear in 79% of answers but get only 5% of recommendations?

We traced how Rosatom passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing a reactor technology for the second nuclear site» · journey «Problem-first» · Turkey · languages TR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
RosatomRU
79%
Rolls-Royce SMR
82%
NuScale Power
86%
EDF / Nuward
77%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
RosatomRU
68%
Rolls-Royce SMR
74%
NuScale Power
78%
EDF / Nuward
68%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
RosatomRU
44%
Rolls-Royce SMR
61%
NuScale Power
65%
EDF / Nuward
55%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
RosatomRU
17%
Rolls-Royce SMR
45%
NuScale Power
48%
EDF / Nuward
38%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
RosatomRU
5%
Rolls-Royce SMR
28%
NuScale Power
30%
EDF / Nuward
23%
Where the choice is lostRosatom
−11
−24
−27largest loss
−12

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index64first three stages
Win index11shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

The Akkuyu track record pulls Rosatom into the early stages of the choice, but in the small-capacity segment the AI systems barely connect it to a ready product and steer towards Western vendors.

Point of maximum loss

−27pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

Rosatom · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

In the answers the small-capacity product is not linked to the brand
66%
Political and sanctions sensitivity of the contract
53%
Few Turkish-language technical materials on SMRs
47%
No SMR reference outside Russia
41%
Uncertainty over localisation and local contractor involvement
27%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Rosatom for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
USA#1 · leader
A certified design · an export portfolio.
NuScale Power
39
United Kingdom#2 · −2 pts
The UK programme · interest from Turkish partners.
Rolls-Royce SMR
37
France#3 · −8 pts
The European SMR programme · regulatory compatibility.
EDF / Nuward
31
RussiaRU#4 · −28 pts
Rosatom
11

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Recommended for Rosatom · Turkey

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Present your small reactors as a standalone product

    Describe your small reactor line as a product in its own right, with specifications and supply terms.

    Forecast+12pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $4 mn / year
  2. 02

    Show Turkish customers your Akkuyu experience

    Prepare technical materials and an Akkuyu project overview in Turkish, in an easily searchable format.

    Forecast+8pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $3 mn / year
  3. 03

    Prove your small reactor track record abroad

    Publish verified details of a small reactor project abroad, whether completed or under contract.

    Forecast+7pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $2 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+27pts to the index3158index 31 → 58≈ $9 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “In the answers the small-capacity product is not linked to the brand” · 66% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Few Turkish-language technical materials on SMRs” · 47% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “No SMR reference outside Russia” · 41% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · TR, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
013Türkiye'nin küçük modüler reaktör programı için hangi tedarikçiler değerlendirilmeli?GeminiTR…Rolls-Royce SMR ve NuScale öne çıkıyor. Rosatom Akkuyu ile büyük ölçekte deneyimli, ancak SMR segmentinde ticari referans sınırlı…
058Which SMR vendors can realistically deliver a project in Turkey before 2035?PerplexityEN…Rolls-Royce SMR and NuScale lead on licensing maturity. Rosatom is credited with the only operating SMR fleet but is rarely shortlisted for Turkish tenders due to financing constraints…
001Türkiye için önde gelen SMR tedarikçileri kimler?PerplexityTR…önce Rolls-Royce SMR ve NuScale Power anılıyor; Rosatom büyük üretici olarak biliniyor ancak yeterlilik listelerinde nadiren yer alıyor…
002Who are the leading SMR suppliers for Türkiye?GeminiEN…Rolls-Royce SMR and NuScale Power are named first; Rosatom is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Türkiye pazarında SMR sağlayan şirketler hangileri?ClaudeTR…kısa liste Rolls-Royce SMR ve NuScale Power çevresinde kuruluyor. Rosatom yalnızca alternatifler sorulduğunda anılıyor…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Small modular reactors × Turkey

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$0.3–0.5 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · Turkey

Rosatom loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

Rosatom — 17% · NuScale Power — 48%. In 66% of observations one of the reasons is in the answers the small-capacity product is not linked to the brand.

  • PR · Turkey

    Small-capacity line as its own product

    Present the small-capacity line as a product in its own right.

    Expected effect+12 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · Turkey

    Turkish-language materials and the Akkuyu case

    Produce Turkish-language materials and the Akkuyu case in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+8 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences