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Decision journey study

How Russian wheat appears in the algorithmic choice of Egyptian state buyers

State importer · milling wheat procurement tender

34/ 100

34 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Egypt · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Egypt
$3.7–4.4bn / year

~7% of the global market · 2025

Confidence: high
Basis
annual trade / sales
Sources
World's Top Exports — Wheat Imports by Country 2025USDA FAS — Egypt Grain and Feed Annual

The range is the spread between independent vendor estimates: they draw the category boundary differently. A single figure would be falsely precise.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Russian wheatEgypt
    H18 mo

    Pass state buyers' quality evaluation.

    Shortlist2737AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +37%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Russian wheatEgypt
    H29 mo

    Remove the settlement and insurance barrier.

    Shortlist2741AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +52%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Russian wheatEgypt
    H38 mo

    Build buyer trust with delivered contracts.

    Shortlist2735AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +30%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of United Grain CompanyUnited Grain Company
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for United Grain Company. We build them to order.

  • Logo of RusagroRusagro
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for Rusagro. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Arabic and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Russian wheat appear in 89% of answers but get only 11% of recommendations?

We traced how Russian wheat passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Choosing the country of origin for a state tender» · journey «Problem-first» · Egypt · languages AR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
Russian wheatRU
89%
French wheat
88%
US wheat
85%
Australian wheat
80%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
Russian wheatRU
80%
French wheat
81%
US wheat
77%
Australian wheat
72%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
Russian wheatRU
58%
French wheat
71%
US wheat
66%
Australian wheat
60%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
Russian wheatRU
27%
French wheat
56%
US wheat
50%
Australian wheat
44%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
Russian wheatRU
11%
French wheat
38%
US wheat
33%
Australian wheat
28%
Where the choice is lostRussian wheat
−9
−22
−31largest loss
−16

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index76first three stages
Win index19shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

Russia is reliably recognised as the largest supplier by volume, but at the move to the recommendation the AI systems shift towards origins with more predictable logistics and payment terms.

Point of maximum loss

−31pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

Russian wheat · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Uncertainty over settlements and freight insurance
64%
Reputational volatility of supply in the AI answers
51%
No structured per-lot quality data
45%
A weak Arabic-language supply evidence base
37%
The risk of export duties and quotas in the models' reasoning
34%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Russian wheat for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
France#1 · leader
A short haul in the Mediterranean, consistent quality.
French wheat
47
USA#2 · −5 pts
A mature classification and contracting system.
US wheat
42
Australia#3 · −11 pts
High protein, premium segment.
Australian wheat
36
RussiaRU#4 · −28 pts
Russian wheat
19

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Recommended for Russian wheat · Egypt

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show buyers your grain quality by class

    Publish quality specifications for each wheat class in a clear, searchable format.

    Forecast+10pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $32 mn / year
  2. 02

    Make payment and insurance clear to buyers

    Explain how payment and freight insurance work for shipments to Egypt, simply and transparently.

    Forecast+14pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $45 mn / year
  3. 03

    Show in Arabic that you honour contracts

    Prepare Arabic-language materials on fulfilled contracts so buyers can see your supply record.

    Forecast+8pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $26 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+32pts to the index3466index 34 → 66≈ $104 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “No structured per-lot quality data” · 45% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Uncertainty over settlements and freight insurance” · 64% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “A weak Arabic-language supply evidence base” · 37% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · AR, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
007ما هي أفضل دول المنشأ لاستيراد القمح إلى مصر من حيث الموثوقية؟ChatGPTAR…روسيا هي المورد الأكبر من حيث الحجم، لكن فرنسا والولايات المتحدة تُذكران كخيارات أكثر استقراراً من حيث الشحن وشروط الدفع…
038Which wheat origins should an Egyptian state buyer prioritise for reliability of supply?ClaudeEN…Russia leads on volume and price, while French and US origins are described as more predictable on freight, financing and documentation…
001من هم أبرز موردي القمح في مصر؟PerplexityAR…تُذكر French wheat وUS wheat أولاً؛ Russian wheat معروفة بالحجم لكنها نادراً ما تظهر في قوائم التأهيل…
002Who are the leading wheat suppliers for Egypt?GeminiEN…French wheat and US wheat are named first; Russian wheat is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003ما الشركات التي توفر القمح في مصر؟ClaudeAR…تُبنى القائمة القصيرة حول French wheat وUS wheat. تُذكر Russian wheat فقط عند السؤال عن البدائل…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Wheat × Egypt

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$3.7–4.4 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
6objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · Egypt

Russian wheat loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

Russian wheat — 27% · French wheat — 56%. In 64% of observations one of the reasons is uncertainty over settlements and freight insurance.

  • GEO · Egypt

    Quality specifications by grade

    Publish quality specifications by grade in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+10 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · Egypt

    Arabic-language record of delivered contracts

    Assemble an Arabic-language evidence base of delivered contracts.

    Expected effect+8 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences