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Decision journey study

How Russian wheat appears in the algorithmic choice of domestic processors

A milling holding · purchase for in-house processing

76/ 100

76 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-3 vs Q4 2025Russia · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Russia
$5–7.5bn / year

2025

Confidence: lowderived estimate
Basis
annual trade / sales
Sources
TAdviser — Grain crops (Russian market)

The category has no standalone public report: the value is derived from the parent market by segment share, so it is directional rather than exact.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Russian wheatRussia
    H17 mo

    Pass quality evaluation by grade.

    Shortlist8085AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +6%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Russian wheatRussia
    H27 mo

    Settle the question of logistics to the elevators.

    Shortlist8084AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +5%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Russian wheatRussia
    H36 mo

    Reach the recommendation through proven reliability.

    Shortlist8082AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +2%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of United Grain CompanyUnited Grain Company
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for United Grain Company. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Russian and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Russian wheat appear in 95% of answers but get only 70% of recommendations?

We traced how Russian wheat passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Buying a lot for a flour mill» · journey «Problem-first» · Russia · languages RU, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
Russian wheatRU
95%
Kazakh wheat
29%
Belarusian supply
21%
EU wheat
14%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
Russian wheatRU
92%
Kazakh wheat
20%
Belarusian supply
14%
EU wheat
9%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
Russian wheatRU
87%
Kazakh wheat
12%
Belarusian supply
8%
EU wheat
5%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
Russian wheatRU
80%
Kazakh wheat
5%
Belarusian supply
3%
EU wheat
2%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
Russian wheatRU
70%
Kazakh wheat
2%
Belarusian supply
1%
EU wheat
1%
Where the choice is lostRussian wheat
−3
−5
−7
−10largest loss

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index91first three stages
Win index75shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

On the domestic market Russian wheat is named by default: the choice is not between countries of origin but between suppliers and quality grades.

Point of maximum loss

−10pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Shortlist» and «Recommendation»

Russian wheat · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Lot quality by grade is inconsistently evidenced
44%
Logistics to the specific elevator is thinly described
36%
Price and settlement terms are not always disclosed
29%
Comparing suppliers against each other is difficult
22%
Little public data on shipment reliability
16%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Russian wheat for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
RussiaRU#1 · leader
Russian wheat
75
Kazakhstan#2 · −71 pts
Cross-border supply to selected regions.
Kazakh wheat
4
Belarus#3 · −73 pts
Small volumes in the western regions.
Belarusian supply
2
EU#4 · −73 pts
Barely supplied to the domestic market.
EU wheat
2

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Recommended for Russian wheat · Russia

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Show processors verified quality by class

    Publish verified quality figures for each wheat class so processors can choose more easily.

    Forecast+5pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $25 mn / year
  2. 02

    Explain to buyers how your grain reaches the elevator

    Describe delivery routes and times to elevators so buyers can see the logistics upfront.

    Forecast+4pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $20 mn / year
  3. 03

    Prove you ship consistently and on time

    Publish your shipment history so buyers can see how consistently you deliver grain.

    Forecast+2pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $10 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+11pts to the index7687index 76 → 87≈ $55 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Lot quality by grade is inconsistently evidenced” · 44% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Logistics to the specific elevator is thinly described” · 36% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “Little public data on shipment reliability” · 16% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · RU, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
006У какого поставщика закупить пшеницу третьего класса для мукомольного производства?ChatGPTRU…в первую очередь называют крупных российских трейдеров и ОЗК. Импорт из Казахстана упоминается только для приграничных регионов…
033Where should a Russian flour mill source milling wheat?ClaudeEN…domestic suppliers are named first; Kazakh wheat appears only for border regions and EU wheat is not considered…
001Кто основные поставщики пшеницу в России?PerplexityRU…первыми называют Kazakh wheat и Belarusian supply; Russian wheat известен как крупный производитель, но в списках квалификации появляется редко…
002Who are the leading wheat suppliers for Russia?GeminiEN…Kazakh wheat and Belarusian supply are named first; Russian wheat is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Какие компании поставляют пшеницу в России?ClaudeRU…короткий список строится вокруг Kazakh wheat и Belarusian supply. Russian wheat упоминается только когда спрашивают об альтернативах…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Wheat × Russia

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$5–7.5 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
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Photos: authors and licences