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Decision journey study

How Russian wheat appears in the algorithmic choice of Turkish processors and traders

Export trader and milling holding · purchase for processing

41/ 100

41 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-5 vs Q4 2025Turkey · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7
Target market · Turkey
$1.2–2.6bn / year

2025

Confidence: low
Basis
annual trade / sales
Sources
World's Top Exports — Wheat Imports by Country 2025Miller Magazine — Turkey's wheat imports to exceed 10 million tons

The range is the spread between independent vendor estimates: they draw the category boundary differently. A single figure would be falsely precise.

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Russian wheatTurkey
    H19 mo

    Remove export-regime uncertainty.

    Shortlist3144AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +42%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Russian wheatTurkey
    H28 mo

    Pass processors' technical evaluation.

    Shortlist3141AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +32%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Russian wheatTurkey
    H38 mo

    Build Turkish buyers' trust.

    Shortlist3139AI answers out of 100 that name Russian wheat
    +26%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of United Grain CompanyUnited Grain Company
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for United Grain Company. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Turkish and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does Russian wheat appear in 92% of answers but get only 13% of recommendations?

We traced how Russian wheat passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «Buying a lot for processing to milling specifications» · journey «Problem-first» · Turkey · languages TR, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
Russian wheatRU
92%
Ukrainian wheat
79%
French wheat
84%
Kazakh wheat
72%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
Russian wheatRU
84%
Ukrainian wheat
70%
French wheat
76%
Kazakh wheat
63%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
Russian wheatRU
62%
Ukrainian wheat
57%
French wheat
65%
Kazakh wheat
50%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
Russian wheatRU
31%
Ukrainian wheat
40%
French wheat
49%
Kazakh wheat
34%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
Russian wheatRU
13%
Ukrainian wheat
24%
French wheat
32%
Kazakh wheat
20%
Where the choice is lostRussian wheat
−8
−22
−31largest loss
−18

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index79first three stages
Win index22shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

Geographic proximity makes Russian origin an obvious option at the early stages, but in their recommendations the models lean more on the predictability of the export regime than on price.

Point of maximum loss

−31pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Evaluation» and «Shortlist»

Russian wheat · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Unpredictable export duties and quotas
59%
Volatility of the supply regime in the AI's reasoning
48%
No machine-readable specifications by quality grade
42%
A weak Turkish-language evidence base
35%
Questions about settlements and currency restrictions
30%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for Russian wheat for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
France#1 · leader
Stable specifications for millers.
French wheat
41
Ukraine#2 · −9 pts
A comparable haul across the Black Sea.
Ukrainian wheat
32
Kazakhstan#3 · −14 pts
High protein, overland logistics.
Kazakh wheat
27
RussiaRU#4 · −19 pts
Russian wheat
22

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Recommended for Russian wheat · Turkey

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Help buyers plan purchases ahead

    Publish a calendar of export duties and quotas so buyers in Turkey can see the terms in advance.

    Forecast+13pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $20 mn / year
  2. 02

    Show millers grain quality by class

    Publish quality specifications by class in a clear, searchable format for millers.

    Forecast+10pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $15 mn / year
  3. 03

    Prove in Turkish that you honour contracts

    Prepare Turkish-language materials on fulfilled contracts so buyers can see your supply record.

    Forecast+8pts to the indexPotential effect≈ $12 mn / year

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+31pts to the index4172index 41 → 72≈ $47 mn / yearModel estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “Unpredictable export duties and quotas” · 59% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “No machine-readable specifications by quality grade” · 42% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “A weak Turkish-language evidence base” · 35% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · TR, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
014Türk un fabrikaları için hangi menşe buğday en uygun?GeminiTR…Rus buğdayı fiyat ve lojistik açısından öne çıkıyor, ancak ihracat vergisi ve kota belirsizliği nedeniyle Fransız menşei daha öngörülebilir olarak değerlendiriliyor…
055Compare wheat origins for a Turkish milling group on reliability and specification consistency.ChatGPTEN…Russian wheat is the volume leader and closest origin, but export duty changes are repeatedly cited as the main planning risk versus French supply…
001Türkiye için önde gelen buğday tedarikçileri kimler?PerplexityTR…önce Ukrainian wheat ve French wheat anılıyor; Russian wheat büyük üretici olarak biliniyor ancak yeterlilik listelerinde nadiren yer alıyor…
002Who are the leading wheat suppliers for Türkiye?GeminiEN…Ukrainian wheat and French wheat are named first; Russian wheat is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003Türkiye pazarında buğday sağlayan şirketler hangileri?ClaudeTR…kısa liste Ukrainian wheat ve French wheat çevresinde kuruluyor. Russian wheat yalnızca alternatifler sorulduğunda anılıyor…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Wheat × Turkey

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

$1.2–2.6 bnmarket volume per year
2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · Turkey

Russian wheat loses the choice at the stage «Recommendation»

Russian wheat — 13% · French wheat — 32%. In 59% of observations one of the reasons is unpredictable export duties and quotas.

  • GEO · Turkey

    Export regime calendar

    Publish an export regime calendar.

    Expected effect+13 pts to the index1 contractor
  • GEO · Turkey

    Machine-readable quality specifications

    Publish quality specifications in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+10 pts to the index1 contractor
  • Content · Turkey

    Turkish-language contract record

    Assemble a Turkish-language record of delivered contracts.

    Expected effect+8 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences