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Other studies in this categorySaudi Arabia · Buyer on an oil and gas projectRussia · Buyer at an oil and gas company
Decision journey study

How Russian oil and gas pipe makers appear in the algorithmic choice of Indian buyers

Buyer at a national oil and gas company · pipe products tender

14/ 100

14 out of 100 — this is how much the object influences the choice in this scenario0 — the buyer never sees you, 100 — you are recommended first

Study index · object's CCI on this marketChoice Control Index of the object on this market, 0–100: how far it gets through the stages of choice and how often it wins. Measured on this market with this buyer type — on another market the same object scores differently.
-5 vs Q4 2025India · Q1 2026 · AI systems: 7

What to change to be chosen

We found three possible directions for growth. We estimated how each of them could affect the buyer's choice and potential revenue.

  • Logo of TMKTMKIndia
    H18 mo

    Remove Indian buyers' main objection.

    Shortlist1020AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    ×2to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of TMKTMKIndia
    H28 mo

    Regain the shortlist place through a local warehouse.

    Shortlist1019AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    +90%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • Logo of TMKTMKIndia
    H38 mo

    Enter consideration on technical parameters.

    Shortlist1017AI answers out of 100 that name TMK
    +70%to revenue from the buyer's decision journeyScenario estimate
  • OMK
    Not assessed

    The market is measured, but there is no report or growth hypotheses for OMK. We build them to order.

What task is the buyer solving?

Pick a choice scenario — a specific task of the buyer.

See which options AI systems consider, whom they recommend and how the participants' positions change across the stages.

Language shapes the choice

We study the same task in Hindi and English to see how language affects AI-system recommendations and companies’ positions.

MeasurementA measurement is one round of the study: over a few days we put the buyer’s questions to the AI systems and recorded every answer. It is repeated every quarter. The latest measurement is shown by default. Pick an earlier quarter to see how positions have changed. The number next to it is how many measurements there are.
AI systems: 7
AI systemThe measurement runs in every AI system at once. The combined result is shown by default. Each system shapes the choice differently: it uses its own sources, models and market context. So a company’s position can differ at different stages of the choice journey — from discovery to recommendation. Pick a system to see where exactly the company wins or loses its position.
Choice journeyThe choice journey is how the buyer starts the conversation with AI. One describes their problem, another asks straight about the product category, a third asks about specific suppliers, a fourth starts with constraints — budget, timing, requirements — and a fifth asks for a ready recommendation. The start of the conversation shapes whom AI suggests. Pick a journey to see where the company is stronger.
LanguageEach scenario is put to the AI systems in the local language and in English. The combined result is shown by default. In different languages AI relies on different sources, so a company’s position can differ. Pick a language to see where the company is stronger.

Why does TMK appear in 69% of answers but get only 3% of recommendations?

We traced how TMK passes the five stages of choice in AI-system answers. See where its position weakens most and how competitors perform.

Measured

Measurement conditions: S1 «A national company's tender for pipe products» · journey «Problem-first» · India · languages HI, EN · AI systems: 7 · Q1 2026

01DiscoveryDoes the object appear in the answer space at all?
TMKRU
69%
Jindal SAW
89%
Tenaris
91%
Welspun Corp
84%
02ConsiderationDoes the AI present it as a real alternative worth considering?
TMKRU
55%
Jindal SAW
83%
Tenaris
85%
Welspun Corp
77%
03EvaluationDoes it enter a substantive comparison against the choice criteria?
TMKRU
29%
Jindal SAW
74%
Tenaris
76%
Welspun Corp
67%
04ShortlistDoes it enter the final set of candidates?
TMKRU
10%
Jindal SAW
61%
Tenaris
62%
Welspun Corp
52%
05RecommendationDoes the AI recommend it outright as a preferred option?
TMKRU
3%
Jindal SAW
44%
Tenaris
45%
Welspun Corp
35%
Where the choice is lostTMK
−14
−26largest loss
−19
−7

Height of a column is the share of answers where the object passes the stage. The narrowing between columns is the loss.

Participation index51first three stages
Win index7shortlist and recommendation

A stage is analytical markup of a step, not a required order of conversation: a journey may start with a recommendation and come back to comparison.

Key finding

Russian pipe enters consideration on price, but in their recommendations the AI systems favour local producers with confirmed qualification against Indian standards.

Point of maximum loss

−26pp

The largest loss occurs between the stages «Consideration» and «Evaluation»

TMK · journey «Problem-first»

Why the position is lost

Choice factors that keep the object out of the final recommendation.

Tender preferences for local producers
66%
No confirmed qualification against Indian standards
54%
Restrictions on settlements and delivery times
49%
A weak evidence base on premium grades
40%
Few Hindi- and English-language technical materials
31%

Position depends on the journey and on the scenario

Probability of a final recommendation for TMK for each decision journey, in both scenarios.

S1S2

The scenarios are different economic tasks. Their levels may be set side by side but not subtracted: the gap between scenarios is not a deficit to be closed.

Who takes the place

In AI recommendations (60–100)
Medium (30–59)
Low (10–29)
Critical (0–9)
Luxembourg · Italy#1 · leader
The premium segment and service.
Tenaris
54
India#2 · −1 pts
A local producer with tender preferences.
Jindal SAW
53
India#3 · −10 pts
Large domestic pipe contracts.
Welspun Corp
44
RussiaRU#4 · −47 pts
TMK
7

Tile area and colour show the win index on this market — shortlist and recommendation. The participation index is in the table view.

For companies · from analysis to results

What to change to be chosen more often?

Logo of TMKRecommended for TMK · India

We identified what keeps the company from winning against competitors and proposed concrete actions to strengthen its position in the market.

Choose the solutions you want to implement. GolOps will help organise the work and check the result.

  1. 01

    Prove your pipes meet Indian standards

    Obtain and publish confirmation of compliance with Indian standards so buyers need not request it.

    Forecast+10pts to the index
  2. 02

    Prove you can supply and support in India

    Partner with a local warehouse and service provider in India and make the partnership visible to buyers.

    Forecast+9pts to the index
  3. 03

    Help buyers find the right steel grade

    Publish your steel grades and their specifications in a clear, searchable format.

    Forecast+7pts to the index

Every solution you add raises the plan’s potential

Your planHand the approved hypotheses to the Control CentreThe Control Centre turns decisions into tasks and does most of the work itself: it draws on your team's context, prepares materials, ships publications, and coordinates whatever needs people. Control and the key decisions stay with you.
Full plan potentialnothing selected yet — all solutions shown+26pts to the index1440index 14 → 40Model estimate, not guaranteed sales
How the forecast is calculatedforecast · model
  • 01 addresses the loss factor “No confirmed qualification against Indian standards” · 54% of answers
  • 02 addresses the loss factor “Restrictions on settlements and delivery times” · 49% of answers
  • 03 addresses the loss factor “A weak evidence base on premium grades” · 40% of answers

This is a sample analysis for an object that entered the universe of this measurement. The universe is assembled anew at every scan of the category: its composition and the positions within it may change. Forecast, not a measurement. The upper bound is the loss at the narrowest transition, distributed across the weights of the loss factors; stage-passing points are carried into index points one to one, and the conversion coefficient is not yet established by the methodology. The money figure uses a working calibration: CCI is measured inside the category universe rather than against the whole market, so 25 index points are taken as roughly 2 percentage points of market share. The actual gain is obtained empirically only — by repeating the same benchmark after the intervention.

For researchers · verification and authorship
Verifiability · for researchers

Check the conclusions against the raw observations

Study the data, reproduce the conclusions or find what we missed.

How the measurement works
170
observations
7
AI systems
2
languages · HI, EN
Q1 2026
measurement
Sample data rows
IDQueryModelLangAnswer (fragment)
023भारत में तेल और गैस परियोजना के लिए OCTG पाइप के सर्वश्रेष्ठ आपूर्तिकर्ता कौन हैं?GeminiHI…Jindal SAW और Welspun घरेलू निविदाओं में सबसे आगे हैं, Tenaris प्रीमियम खंड में। रूसी आपूर्तिकर्ता मूल्य के आधार पर आते हैं, पर योग्यता प्रमाणन की कमी बताई जाती है…
057Shortlist OCTG suppliers for an Indian NOC tender with sour service requirements.PerplexityEN…domestic mills such as Jindal SAW and Welspun benefit from local content rules, with Tenaris for premium grades. Russian mills are price-competitive but flagged on qualification and payment routes…
001भारत के लिए प्रमुख OCTG आपूर्तिकर्ता कौन हैं?PerplexityHI…पहले Jindal SAW और Tenaris का उल्लेख होता है; TMK बड़े उत्पादक के रूप में जाना जाता है पर योग्यता सूची में कम आता है…
002Who are the leading OCTG suppliers for India?GeminiEN…Jindal SAW and Tenaris are named first; TMK is known as a large producer but rarely appears in the qualification lists…
003भारत में OCTG उपलब्ध कराने वाली कंपनियाँ कौन सी हैं?ClaudeHI…शॉर्टलिस्ट Jindal SAW और Tenaris के इर्द-गिर्द बनती है। TMK का उल्लेख तभी होता है जब विकल्प पूछे जाएँ…
A place for you
Open study · GolOps Research

Oil and gas pipe (OCTG) × India

Take this study under your name. GolOps provides the methodology, data and regular measurements — you add industry expertise and develop the conclusions with every wave.

Authorship stays with you. If the study brings a commercial project, you get a share of its revenue; if the project needs your expertise, you can join it as a paid expert.

2choice scenarios
7AI systems measured
5objects compared
Authorship · share in commercial projects · Terms of participation are fixed before the study starts
How GolOps Research works →
Paid tasks · India

TMK loses the choice at the stage «Shortlist»

TMK — 10% · Tenaris — 62%. In 66% of observations one of the reasons is tender preferences for local producers.

  • GEO · India

    Grades and parameters, machine-readable

    Publish grades and parameters in machine-readable form.

    Expected effect+7 pts to the index1 contractor

Photos: authors and licences